Jasmine Paolini vs Elise MertensRome Round of 32

Rome · WTA · Round of 32
#15WTA
1905ELO
1856Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLW
1 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 9 May 2026 ·
clay
#24WTA
1894ELO
1811Clay ELO
$1.6MYTD
$19MCAREER
30 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWLWL
Paolini J.
6-4 6-7 3-6
Mertens E.
Paolini J.
6631
Mertens E.
4762

Elise Mertens defeated Jasmine Paolini 4-6 7-6 6-3 in the Rome round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Jasmine Paolini came in ranked #15, defending the title. Elise Mertens extended the head-to-head to 5–2.

Key context

Head to head

24
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-06-24EastbourneR16grassJasmine Paolini5-2 RET
2023-10-16MonastirFhardElise Mertens6-3 6-0
2022-02-21DohaR64hardElise Mertens6-3 2-6 7-5
2021-10-06Indian WellsR64hardJasmine Paolini3-6 6-4 6-4
2020-08-10PragueR32clayElise Mertens7-5 4-6 6-3
2018-04-21Fed Cup WG R1: BEL vs ITARRclayElise Mertens6-1 7-5

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving55% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Mertens E.

Mertens E.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Mertens E.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
61%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
55%
61%
Return points won·Even
43%
47%
Break points saved·Even
56%
52%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.5
4.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.0
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (13 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
89
80
Break points saved·Even
87
90
Break points won·Even
99
96
Deciding sets·Clear edge
97
76
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
93
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+46 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Clay Elo 1811
5.3Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1894
5.0
H2H
5.0
6.4
Surface form
5.0
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0
Prev. match
7.0
8.0
Country comfort
Context
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
79
81

Paolini J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Mertens E.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 55%

Draw

R128
R64
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final