Jasmine Paolini vs Sara Bejlek — Wuhan Round of 64

WuhanR64HardMon 12 Oct · ~14:00Court 1 · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Paolini J.6.9/10
Slight advantage
Bejlek S.6.1/10
Even match
Why
Surface+124 Hard Elo edgeSupports Paolini J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1905Supports Paolini J.
Recent runLost last 2Informative
This eventReached the semis here last yearSupports Paolini J.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Bejlek S.
ELO2 001
Hard ELO1 858
Last 106–4
Age30
Height160 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $16.5M2026 $2.2M
ELO1 905
Hard ELO1 766
Last 106–4
Age20
Height163 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $2.2M2026 $1.2M

Jasmine Paolini faces Sara Bejlek in the Wuhan round of 64 on hard. Jasmine Paolini holds the paper edge — ranked #20, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

11 shared · last 12 months

Paolini J. and Bejlek S. faced 11 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Paolini J. went 3–9 (25%) against them, Bejlek S. 4–9 (31%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 3 better-results split).

3–925%Paolini J. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents4–931%Bejlek S. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
8–20Sets9–19
115–154Games112–155
0–1Tiebreaks3–3
2–2Deciding sets1–1
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Paolini J.Bejlek S.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–46–4
Season win rate54% (19–16)55% (24–20) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2001 (ahead)1905
Hard-court ELO1858 (ahead)1766
Serve vs returnLast 31 vs 39 matches
1st-serve points won61% (ahead)60%
Return points won44%46% (ahead)
Aces / match1.8 (ahead)1.2
ClutchLast 31 vs 39 matches
Break points saved59% (ahead)54%

When it starts

Court 1 · After 2 matches · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1 · ~14:00 local
SurfaceHard · medium
Forecast24°C · Clear
Wind11 km/h
Humidity63%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Paolini J.Bejlek S.
9 — fresherDays since last match7
0 — fresherMatches · 7 days1
0 — fresherGames · 7 days23
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days2
30 — fresherGames · 14 days44
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jasmine Paolini vs Sara Bejlek — Wuhan Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-12/bejlek-vs-paolini-wuhan-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 12 October 2026).