Belinda Bencic vs Jasmine PaoliniUnited Cup Round Robin

United Cup · WTA · Round Robin
#11WTA
1989ELO
1952Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$17MCAREER
29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 5 January 2026
hard
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
Bencic B.
6-4 6-3
Paolini J.
Bencic B.
662
Paolini J.
430

Belinda Bencic defeated Jasmine Paolini 6-4 6-3 in the United Cup round robin on hard. The result followed the form book — Belinda Bencic came in ranked #11. Belinda Bencic narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-13NingboQFhardJasmine Paolini5-7 7-5 6-3
2024-12-27United CupRRhardJasmine Paolini6-1 6-1
2022-11-09BJK Cup Finals RR: SUI vs ITARRhardBelinda Bencic7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Bencic B.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Paolini J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bencic B.

Serve advantage — Bencic B.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Bencic B.Paolini J.
57
Serve
31
55
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Slight edge
60%
55%
Return points won·Even
45%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
56%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.9
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
89
Break points saved·Slight edge
95
87
Break points won·Slight edge
94
99
Deciding sets·Even
98
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Injury return: 70 days (−1.2)
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 65 days (−1.2)
Form & Matchup
5.8+80 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1873
5.7Overall Elo 1989
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1905
0.0
H2H
10.0
7.9
Surface form
4.2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
76

Bencic B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast