Jasmine Paolini vs Belinda BencicNingbo Quarter-final

Ningbo · WTA · Quarter-final
#17WTA
1905ELO
1873Hard ELO
$1.3MYTD
$16MCAREER
30 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLWLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 13 October 2025
hard
#11WTA
1989ELO
1952Hard ELO
$1.8MYTD
$17MCAREER
29 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL
Paolini J.
5-7 7-5 6-3
Bencic B.
Paolini J.
5762
Bencic B.
7531

Jasmine Paolini defeated Belinda Bencic 5-7 7-5 6-3 in the Ningbo quarter-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Belinda Bencic came in ranked #11, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Jasmine Paolini narrowed the head-to-head to 2–2.

Key context

Head to head

12
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-05United CupRRhardBelinda Bencic6-4 6-3
2024-12-27United CupRRhardJasmine Paolini6-1 6-1
2022-11-09BJK Cup Finals RR: SUI vs ITARRhardBelinda Bencic7-5 6-3

Serve vs return

This season
Paolini J.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Bencic B.

Bencic B.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Paolini J.

Serve advantage — Bencic B.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Paolini J.Bencic B.
31
Serve
57
55
Return
55

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
68%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
48%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
44%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
60%
Aces / match·Even
1.5
2.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.6
2.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (73 vs 68). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
89
88
Break points saved·Slight edge
87
95
Break points won·Slight edge
99
94
Deciding sets·Even
97
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
93
98

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Hard Elo 1873
Surface ELO
5.8+80 Hard Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1905
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1989
5.4
H2H
4.6
7.6
Surface form
6.0
0.0
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
6.3
Minutes 14d
8.0
7.0
3-set count
7.0
Prev. match
9.0
Country comfort
4.7
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
76
82

Paolini J.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d) · Bencic B.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
34°CDrizzle
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 47%