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Jasmine Paolini vs Anhelina Kalinina — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 32

Ningbo Open - NingboR32HardTue 20 Oct · 10:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Paolini J.
71%29%

Clear edge for Paolini J. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Paolini J.6.5/10
Marginal edge
Kalinina A.5.1/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+129 Hard Elo edgeSupports Paolini J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1905Supports Paolini J.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Paolini J.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO2 007
Hard ELO1 864
Last 105–5
Age30
Height160 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $16.6M2026 $2.3M
ELO1 815
Hard ELO1 669
Last 104–6
Age29
Height179 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.2M2026 $804K

Jasmine Paolini faces Anhelina Kalinina in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 32 on hard. Jasmine Paolini holds the paper edge — ranked #33, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Paolini J. and Kalinina A. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Paolini J. went 3–3 (50%) against them, Kalinina A. 2–4 (33%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 1 better-results split).

3–350%Paolini J. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–433%Kalinina A. · better vs 1
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
8–7Sets4–7
68–63Games48–57
0–1Tiebreaks1–0
1–2Deciding sets0–0
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Paolini J.Kalinina A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–5 (ahead)4–6
Season win rate55% (21–17)64% (42–24) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2007 (ahead)1815
Hard-court ELO1864 (ahead)1669
Serve vs returnLast 35 vs 62 matches
1st-serve points won61%61%
Return points won44%48% (ahead)
Aces / match1.6 (ahead)1.3
ClutchLast 35 vs 62 matches
Break points saved60% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

10:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast29°C · Clear
Wind9 km/h
Humidity65%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Paolini J.Kalinina A.
3 — fresherDays since last match1
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
55Games · 7 days49 — fresher
3Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
55Games · 14 days49 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jasmine Paolini vs Anhelina Kalinina — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-20/kalinina-vs-paolini-ningbo-open-ningbo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 20 October 2026).