Jasmine Paolini vs Sonay Kartal | Wuhan Round of 16

UMPIRY

WuhanR16HardThu 15 Oct · ~13:30Court 1 · After 2 matches

Jasmine Paolini(15)WTA #33 · ITA46%

VSToss-up

Sonay KartalWTA #170 · GBR54%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Paolini J.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Kartal S.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+40 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Paolini J.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1905Against the prediction · Paolini J.

This eventReached the semis here last yearAgainst the prediction · Paolini J.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Kartal S.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

ELO2 010

Hard ELO1 867

Last 106–4

Age30

Height160 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $16.6M2026 $2.3M

ELO1 939

Hard ELO1 809

Last 107–3

Age24

Height163 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $326K

Jasmine Paolini faces Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan round of 16 on hard. Jasmine Paolini holds the paper edge — ranked #33, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Sonay Kartal grades 60 on serve, Jasmine Paolini 43 on return.
Freshness: Jasmine Paolini comes in with 2 days of rest and 49 games in 14d, vs Sonay Kartal's 2 and 72.
Last match: Sonay Kartal handed Belinda Bencic a first-set bagel in a 6–0 7–5 win.

Common opponents

4 shared · last 12 months

Paolini J. and Kartal S. faced 4 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Paolini J. went 1–3 (25%) against them, Kartal S. 2–2 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

1–325%Paolini J. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents2–250%Kartal S. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–6Sets5–4

32–44Games45–45

0–0Tiebreaks2–1

0–0Deciding sets0–1

Only 4 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Svitolina E.#6L2-6 2-6Billie Jean King Cup · hardL4-6 7-6 6-7Auckland · hard
vs Bencic B.#12L4-6 3-6United Cup · hardW6-0 7-5Wuhan · hard
vs Bejlek S.#30W6-3 6-4Wuhan · hardL0-6 2-6Abu Dhabi · hard

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vs Bucsa C.#38L5-7 4-6Merida · hardW6-3 7-6Abu Dhabi · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Paolini J.Kartal S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate57% (21–16)65% (15–8)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20101939

Hard-court ELO18671809

Serve vs returnLast 32 vs 22 matches

1st-serve points won61%67%

Return points won45%44%

Aces / match1.72.4

ClutchLast 32 vs 22 matches

Break points saved60%51%

When it starts

Court 1 · After 2 matches · Followed by

1Pohankova M. v Sakkari M.Starting at 11:00 AM
2Jovic I. v Chwalinska M.Not before 12:00 PM
3This match: Paolini J. v Kartal S.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Court 1 · ~13:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast19°C · Showers

Wind9 km/h

Humidity95%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Paolini J.Kartal S.

2Days since last match2

1Matches · 7 days1

19Games · 7 days21

2Matches · 14 days4

49Games · 14 days72

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Jasmine Paolini vs Sonay Kartal — Wuhan Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-15/kartal-vs-paolini-wuhan-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 15 October 2026).