Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal | Wuhan Quarter-final

UMPIRY

WuhanQuarter-finalHardFri 16 Oct · 12:30Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · After 1 match

Elina Svitolina(5)WTA #6 · UKR61%

VSSlight edge · Svitolina E.

Sonay KartalWTA #170 · GBR39%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winSlight edge · Svitolina E.

61%39%

Svitolina E. favoured, but within the range where form on the day decides.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Svitolina E.6.4/10

Marginal edge

Kartal S.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+165 Hard Elo edgeSupports Svitolina E.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2070Supports Svitolina E.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kartal S.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Svitolina E.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Kartal S.

ELO2 133

Hard ELO1 986

Last 106–4

Age32

Height174 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $31.1M2026 $4.4M

ELO1 955

Hard ELO1 825

Last 107–3

Age24

Height163 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $326K

Elina Svitolina faces Sonay Kartal in the Wuhan quarter-final on hard. Elina Svitolina is the paper favourite — ranked #6, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage — but Sonay Kartal rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Serve & return: Sonay Kartal brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 64), Elina Svitolina the stronger return game (Return Rating 82).
Freshness: Workload contrast: Elina Svitolina 114 games in 14 days, Sonay Kartal 90.
Last match: Elina Svitolina dropped just 5 games past Hanyu Guo.

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Svitolina E. and Kartal S. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Svitolina E. went 7–3 (70%) against them, Kartal S. 4–2 (67%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 0 better-results split).

7–370%Svitolina E. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents4–267%Kartal S. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

15–9Sets8–4

121–93Games64–44

1–0Tiebreaks1–1

3–1Deciding sets0–0

vs Rybakina E.#1L5-7 4-6Indian Wells · hardL4-6 3-4Indian Wells · hard
vs Bencic B.#12W4-6 6-4 6-0Roland Garros · clayW6-0 7-5Wuhan · hard
vs Kalinskaya A.#21L4-6 3-6Doha · hardL6-7 1-6Australian Open · hard

Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Paolini J.#33W6-2 6-2Billie Jean King Cup · hardW6-2 6-0Wuhan · hard
vs Bucsa C.#38W6-4 6-1Australian Open · hardW6-3 7-6Abu Dhabi · hard
vs Wang X.#39W6-3 7-6Auckland · hardW6-3 6-2Beijing · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Svitolina E. leads 2–0

Hard: Svitolina E. leads 1–0 · Clay: Svitolina E. leads 1–0

Svitolina E.January 2026AucklandHard6-4 6-7 7-6
Svitolina E.April 2025MadridClay6-3 6-1

Evidence

Svitolina E.Kartal S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–47–3

Season win rate74% (51–18)67% (16–8)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21331955

Hard-court ELO19861825

Serve vs returnLast 61 vs 22 matches

1st-serve points won66%67%

Return points won47%44%

Aces / match3.42.4

ClutchLast 61 vs 22 matches

Break points saved63%51%

When it starts

Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · After 1 match · Not before 12:30 PM

1Shnaider D. v Ostapenko J.Starting at 11:00 AM
2This match: Svitolina E. v Kartal S.This match
3Chwalinska M. v Sakkari M.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Dongfeng Voyah Center Court · 12:30 local

SurfaceHard · medium

Forecast23°C · Overcast

Wind7 km/h

Humidity80%

Court pace medium: balanced pace.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Svitolina E.Kartal S.

1Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

50Games · 7 days39

5Matches · 14 days5

114Games · 14 days90

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Elina Svitolina vs Sonay Kartal — Wuhan Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-16/kartal-vs-svitolina-wuhan-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 16 October 2026).