Jasmine Paolini vs Veronika Erjavec — US Open Round of 128
ITA19
Paolini J.
Jasmine Paolini faces Veronika Erjavec in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Jasmine Paolini holds the paper edge — ranked #20, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 350-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 12:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Paolini J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Stage: Jasmine Paolini defends last year's round of 32.
- Fatigue load: Veronika Erjavec carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 35). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadErjavec V.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 35 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.