Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov

UMPIRY

AlmatyQuarter-finalHardFri 23 Oct · 19:30CENTER COURT · After 3 matches

Alexander Bublik(3)ATP #19 · KAZ51%

VSToss-up

Karen Khachanov(5)ATP #25 · RUS49%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bublik A.5.1/10

Clear underdog

Khachanov K.5.3/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+54 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bublik A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1889Supports Bublik A.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Khachanov K.

Head-to-headTrails 0–1 on hardInformative

This eventReached the last 16 here last yearAgainst the prediction · Khachanov K.

ELO2 073

Hard ELO1 902

Last 105–5

Age29

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.7M2026 $1.7M

ELO2 048

Hard ELO1 898

Last 107–3

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $23.5M2026 $1.4M

Alexander Bublik faces Karen Khachanov in the Almaty quarter-final on hard. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #19, a roughly 50-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Karen Khachanov ahead 1–0 on hard.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Alexander Bublik 94 games in 14 days, Karen Khachanov 94.
Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Alexander Bublik grades 58 on serve, Karen Khachanov 39 on return.
Last match: Alexander Bublik received a walkover from Fabian Marozsan.

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Bublik A. and Khachanov K. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bublik A. went 4–5 (44%) against them, Khachanov K. 6–4 (60%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 2 better-results split).

4–544%Bublik A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents6–460%Khachanov K. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

11–12Sets14–13

120–115Games143–128

1–5Tiebreaks1–5

1–2Deciding sets2–0

vs Zverev A.#2L6-7(6) 6-4 6-7(1)Shanghai Masters · hardL3-6 6-7(7) 6-7(6)US Open · hard
vs Auger-Aliassime F.#7L6-7 4-6Paris Masters · hardW6-7(5) 6-3 6-2 6-2US Open · hard
vs De Minaur A.#8W6-7 6-4 7-5Paris Masters · hardL2-6 2-6Paris Masters · hard

Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Mensik J.#16L4-6 6-7(5)Beijing · hardL4-6 6-7Madrid Masters · clay
vs Tien L.#18L6-4 3-6 5-7Rome Masters · clayW7-5 4-6 6-7(6) 6-1 6-4US Open · hard
vs Machac T.#72W6-4 7-6(4)Shanghai Masters · hardW6-2 4-6 7-6(7)Almaty · hard
vs Mannarino A.#79W6-3 6-1 6-1US Open · hardW6-2 6-4Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Molcan A.#80W6-3 6-2Kitzbuhel · clayW7-5 6-3Beijing · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Grass: Bublik A. leads 1–0 · Hard: Khachanov K. leads 1–0

Bublik A.June 2025HalleGrass4-6 7-6 6-4
Khachanov K.August 2020Cincinnati MastersHard6-4 6-4

Evidence

Bublik A.Khachanov K.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–57–3

Season win rate60% (31–21)55% (27–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20732048

Hard-court ELO19021898

Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 47 matches

1st-serve points won77%75%

Return points won33%36%

Aces / match12.08.1

ClutchLast 49 vs 47 matches

Break points saved65%70%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 3 matches · Not before 19:30

1Basilashvili N. v Mannarino A.Starts at 11:30
2Tsitsipas S. v Duckworth J.Not before 13:00
3Medvedev D. v Atmane T.Followed by
4This match: Bublik A. v Khachanov K.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 19:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast5°C · Mainly clear

Wind7 km/h

Humidity45%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Bublik A.Khachanov K.

9Days since last match2

0Matches · 7 days1

0Games · 7 days18

3Matches · 14 days4

94Games · 14 days94

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexander Bublik vs Karen Khachanov — Almaty Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/bublik-vs-khachanov-almaty-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).