Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov | Almaty Round of 16

UMPIRY

AlmatyR16HardThu 22 Oct · 13:00CENTER COURT · After 1 match

Tomas MachacATP #72 · CZE31%

VSClear favourite · Khachanov K.

Karen Khachanov(5)ATP #25 · RUS69%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Khachanov K.

31%69%

Clear edge for Khachanov K. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Machac T.5.0/10

Heavy underdog

Khachanov K.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+46 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Machac T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1866Against the prediction · Machac T.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Khachanov K.

This eventReached the last 16 here last yearSupports Khachanov K.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players

ELO1 955

Hard ELO1 818

Last 105–5

Age26

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $862K

ELO2 048

Hard ELO1 898

Last 107–3

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $23.5M2026 $1.4M

Tomas Machac faces Karen Khachanov in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Karen Khachanov holds the paper edge — ranked #25, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's round of 16.

Key context

Freshness: Tomas Machac comes in with 5 days of rest and 114 games in 14d, vs Karen Khachanov's 1 and 94.
Last match: Karen Khachanov dropped just 6 games past Rei Sakamoto.
Last match: Tomas Machac handed Zangar Nurlanuly a second-set bagel in a 6–2 6–0 win.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Machac T. and Khachanov K. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Machac T. went 1–4 (20%) against them, Khachanov K. 3–2 (60%). Khachanov K. came out better against 2 of 4 comparable opponents, Machac T. against 0.

1–420%Machac T. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents3–260%Khachanov K. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–10Sets9–6

44–71Games81–67

1–1Tiebreaks1–3

1–0Deciding sets0–1

vs Zverev A.#2L4-6 2-6 2-6Roland Garros · clayL3-6 6-7(7) 6-7(6)US Open · hard
vs Gea A.#44L3-6 4-6Beijing · hardW6-3 6-0Roland Garros · clay
vs Hanfmann Y.#59W7-6(7) 6-7(6) 6-4Beijing · hardW6-3 6-4 6-4Wimbledon · grass

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Molcan A.#80L3-6 2-6Beijing · hardW7-5 6-3Beijing · hard
vs Cobolli F.#6Hard to compareL1-6 4-6Paris Masters · hardL6-0 6-7 7-6 2-6 2-6Wimbledon · grass

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Khachanov K. leads 1–0

Khachanov K.January 2024Australian OpenHard6-4 7-6 4-6 7-6

Evidence

Machac T.Khachanov K.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–57–3

Season win rate53% (19–17)54% (26–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19552048

Hard-court ELO18181898

Serve vs returnLast 34 vs 46 matches

1st-serve points won68%75%

Return points won36%36%

Aces / match5.18.0

ClutchLast 34 vs 46 matches

Break points saved58%68%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 1 match · Not before 13:00

1Atmane T. v Bellucci M.Starts at 11:30
2This match: Machac T. v Khachanov K.This match
3Medvedev D. v Shimabukuro S.Followed by
4Bublik A. v Marozsan F.Not before 19:30

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 13:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast17°C · Overcast

Wind8 km/h

Humidity27%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Machac T.Khachanov K.

5Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days1

44Games · 7 days18

5Matches · 14 days4

114Games · 14 days94

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tomas Machac vs Karen Khachanov — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/khachanov-vs-machac-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).