Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan | Almaty Round of 16

UMPIRY

AlmatyR16HardThu 22 Oct · 11:00

Alexander Bublik(3)ATP #19 · KAZ71%

VSClear favourite · Bublik A.

Fabian MarozsanATP #64 · HUN29%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bublik A.

71%29%

Clear edge for Bublik A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Bublik A.6.2/10

Even match

Marozsan F.5.9/10

Even match

Why

Surface+90 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bublik A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1889Supports Bublik A.

This eventReached the quarters here last yearAgainst the prediction · Marozsan F.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Marozsan F.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO2 073

Hard ELO1 902

Last 105–5

Age29

Height196 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $12.7M2026 $1.7M

ELO1 900

Hard ELO1 749

Last 105–5

Age27

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $4.9M2026 $1.0M

Alexander Bublik faces Fabian Marozsan in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #19, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Alexander Bublik comes in with 7 days of rest and 94 games in 14d, vs Fabian Marozsan's 12 and 22.
Serve & return: Alexander Bublik brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 59), Fabian Marozsan the stronger return game (Return Rating 22).
Last match: Fabian Marozsan edged Timofey Skatov in two tight sets (7–5 7–6).

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Bublik A. and Marozsan F. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Bublik A. went 3–2 (60%) against them, Marozsan F. 1–2 (33%). Bublik A. came out better against 2 of 3 comparable opponents, Marozsan F. against 0.

3–260%Bublik A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents1–233%Marozsan F. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

7–5Sets2–5

66–57Games32–43

2–1Tiebreaks2–1

0–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Fritz T.#14L4-6 4-6Stuttgart · grassL2-6 4-6Halle · grass
vs Molcan A.#80W6-3 6-2Kitzbuhel · clayW2-6 7-6 7-6Mallorca · grass
vs Jacquet K.#85W6-3 6-4 7-6Wimbledon · grassL6-7(12) 4-6Hangzhou · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Bublik A.Marozsan F.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate59% (30–21)49% (22–23)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20731900

Hard-court ELO19021749

Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 44 matches

1st-serve points won77%70%

Return points won33%35%

Aces / match12.04.8

ClutchLast 49 vs 44 matches

Break points saved65%59%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast15°C · Partly cloudy

Wind5 km/h

Humidity31%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Bublik A.Marozsan F.

7Days since last match12

1Matches · 7 days0

36Games · 7 days0

3Matches · 14 days1

94Games · 14 days22

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alexander Bublik vs Fabian Marozsan — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/bublik-vs-marozsan-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).