Terence Atmane vs Mattia Bellucci | Almaty Round of 16

UMPIRY

AlmatyR16HardThu 22 Oct · 11:30CENTER COURT · Next on

Terence AtmaneATP #98 · FRA48%

VSToss-up

Mattia BellucciATP #68 · ITA52%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

48%52%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Atmane T.6.1/10

Even match

Bellucci M.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+4 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bellucci M.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1720Supports Bellucci M.

Recent run6-match win streakSupports Bellucci M.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardAgainst the prediction · Atmane T.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Atmane T.

ELO1 876

Hard ELO1 773

Last 105–5

Age24

Height193 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $979K

ELO1 886

Hard ELO1 750

Last 108–2

Age25

Height175 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $662K

Terence Atmane faces Mattia Bellucci in the Almaty round of 16 on hard. Mattia Bellucci is the paper favourite — ranked #68 — but Terence Atmane has won their only previous meeting.

Key context

Freshness: Terence Atmane comes in with 1 days of rest and 21 games in 14d, vs Mattia Bellucci's 3 and 135.
Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Terence Atmane grades 44 on serve, Mattia Bellucci 20 on return.
Win streak: Mattia Bellucci arrives on a 6-match winning run.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Atmane T. and Bellucci M. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Atmane T. went 3–3 (50%) against them, Bellucci M. 3–4 (43%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

3–350%Atmane T. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents3–443%Bellucci M. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

7–7Sets8–11

72–77Games101–100

4–0Tiebreaks2–4

0–2Deciding sets3–2

vs Mensik J.#16L5-7 4-6Montreal · hardL5-7 6-2 6-7(5)Cincinnati · hard
vs Etcheverry T.#29L6-3 3-6 2-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayW5-7 6-2 6-3Rome Masters · clay
vs Humbert U.#35W7-6 7-6Madrid Masters · clayL6-7 7-6 4-6Eastbourne · grass

Show 2 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Landaluce M.#67W6-3 3-6Halle · grassL4-6 3-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Diallo G.#149L7-6 4-6 5-7Eastbourne · grassL6-7 4-6Indian Wells Masters · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Atmane T. leads 1–0

Atmane T.January 2025Australian OpenHard7-6(7) 6-4

Evidence

Atmane T.Bellucci M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–58–2

Season win rate41% (19–27)58% (39–28)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18761886

Hard-court ELO17731750

Serve vs returnLast 44 vs 61 matches

1st-serve points won75%73%

Return points won31%37%

Aces / match7.86.4

ClutchLast 44 vs 61 matches

Break points saved63%64%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · Next on · Starts at 11:30

1This match: Atmane T. v Bellucci M.This match
2Machac T. v Khachanov K.Not before 13:00
3Medvedev D. v Shimabukuro S.Followed by
4Bublik A. v Marozsan F.Not before 19:30

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · 11:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast15°C · Overcast

Wind5 km/h

Humidity32%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Atmane T.Bellucci M.

1Days since last match3

1Matches · 7 days4

21Games · 7 days88

1Matches · 14 days6

21Games · 14 days135

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Terence Atmane vs Mattia Bellucci — Almaty Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-22/atmane-vs-bellucci-almaty-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 22 October 2026).