Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth

UMPIRY

AlmatyQuarter-finalHardFri 23 Oct · 11:00

Stefanos Tsitsipas(7)ATP #39 · GRE78%

VSClear favourite · Tsitsipas S.

James DuckworthATP #73 · AUS22%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Tsitsipas S.

78%22%

Clear edge for Tsitsipas S. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Tsitsipas S.7.4/10

Dominant favourite

Duckworth J.5.4/10

Clear underdog

Why

Surface+210 Hard Elo edgeSupports Tsitsipas S.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1833Supports Tsitsipas S.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardInformative

This eventReached the semis here last yearAgainst the prediction · Duckworth J.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Duckworth J.

ELO2 065

Hard ELO1 917

Last 108–2

Age28

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $38.2M2026 $1.4M

ELO1 864

Hard ELO1 737

Last 105–5

Age34

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.7M2026 $779K

Stefanos Tsitsipas faces James Duckworth in the Almaty quarter-final on hard. Stefanos Tsitsipas holds the paper edge — ranked #39, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 210-point hard Elo advantage.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Stefanos Tsitsipas has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 22).
Freshness: Stefanos Tsitsipas comes in with 1 days of rest and 138 games in 14d, vs James Duckworth's 1 and 86.
Last match: Stefanos Tsitsipas dropped just 3 games past Mikhail Kukushkin.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Tsitsipas S. and Duckworth J. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Tsitsipas S. went 4–2 (67%) against them, Duckworth J. 2–4 (33%). Tsitsipas S. came out clearly better against 3 of 5 comparable opponents, Duckworth J. against 1 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

4–267%Tsitsipas S. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents2–433%Duckworth J. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

11–5Sets7–7

84–69Games72–70

3–0Tiebreaks2–2

0–1Deciding sets0–1

vs De Minaur A.#8L4-6 6-3 3-6Washington · hardL2-6 6-7(6)Montreal · hard
vs Lehecka J.#20W2-6 6-1 7-6(3) 6-1US Open · hardL4-6Stuttgart · grass
vs Darderi L.#23W6-3 6-4Shanghai Masters · hardW7-5 7-6(7)Almaty · hard

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vs Fery A.#34W6-1 7-6Miami Masters · hardL4-6 6-2 6-7Cincinnati · hard
vs Arnaldi M.#36L7-5 3-6 2-6Roland Garros · clayW5-7 6-3 6-2 7-6(8)US Open · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Tsitsipas S. leads 1–0

Tsitsipas S.July 2018WashingtonHard6-3 6-4

Evidence

Tsitsipas S.Duckworth J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–25–5

Season win rate64% (38–21)51% (27–26)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO20651864

Hard-court ELO19171737

Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 48 matches

1st-serve points won77%75%

Return points won34%34%

Aces / match7.67.8

ClutchLast 56 vs 48 matches

Break points saved64%71%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast7°C · Clear

Wind6 km/h

Humidity44%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Tsitsipas S.Duckworth J.

1Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days2

46Games · 7 days44

6Matches · 14 days4

138Games · 14 days86

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth — Almaty Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/duckworth-vs-tsitsipas-almaty-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).