Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane | Almaty Quarter-final

UMPIRY

AlmatyQuarter-finalHardFri 23 Oct · ~14:30CENTER COURT · After 2 matches

Daniil Medvedev(1)ATP #5 · RUS80%

VSStrong favourite · Medvedev D.

Terence AtmaneATP #98 · FRA20%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Medvedev D.

80%20%

Clear edge for Medvedev D. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 5 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Medvedev D.6.9/10

Slight advantage

Atmane T.4.0/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+289 Hard Elo edgeSupports Medvedev D.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1977Supports Medvedev D.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Atmane T.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Medvedev D.

This eventReached the final here last yearSupports Medvedev D.

ELO2 132

Hard ELO2 029

Last 108–2

Age30

Height198 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $52.3M2026 $2.9M

ELO1 876

Hard ELO1 773

Last 105–5

Age24

Height193 cm

PlaysLeft

EarningsCareer $2.5M2026 $979K

Daniil Medvedev faces Terence Atmane in the Almaty quarter-final on hard. Daniil Medvedev holds the paper edge — ranked #5, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending the title.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Daniil Medvedev 112 games in 14 days, Terence Atmane 21.
Serve & return: Terence Atmane leads on Serve Rating (44), Daniil Medvedev on Return Rating (80).
Last match: Terence Atmane dropped the opening set before beating Mattia Bellucci 6–7 7–6 7–6.

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months

Medvedev D. and Atmane T. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Medvedev D. went 6–4 (60%) against them, Atmane T. 6–8 (43%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 2 better-results split).

6–460%Medvedev D. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents6–843%Atmane T. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

15–10Sets16–21

134–114Games183–190

0–3Tiebreaks3–7

1–2Deciding sets2–3

vs Zverev A.#2L6-2 3-6 6-7Paris Masters · hardL3-6 6-7Madrid Masters · clay
vs Cobolli F.#6L3-6 7-5 4-6Madrid Masters · clayL6-7 3-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Tiafoe F.#9L6-7(1) 4-6 6-7(6)US Open · hardW4-6 6-3 6-4Washington · hard

Show 7 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Etcheverry T.#29W6-3 6-4Halle · grassW6-3 7-6(4)Cincinnati · hard
vs Tabilo A.#31W6-4 6-2Indian Wells Masters · hardL3-6 6-7(6)Washington · hard
vs Munar J.#51W6-1 6-3Paris Masters · hardL7-6(5) 6-3 1-6 6-7(4) 5-7US Open · hard
vs Rinderknech A.#61W6-4 6-4 6-4US Open · hardW7-6 6-3Miami Masters · hard
vs Altmaier D.#65L4-6 4-6Halle · grassW6-4 6-2Miami Masters · hard
vs Landaluce M.#67W1-6 6-4 7-5Rome Masters · clayW6-3 3-6Halle · grass
vs Draper J.#157W6-1 7-5Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-3 2-6 6-2Montreal · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · Medvedev D. leads 2–0

Grass: Medvedev D. leads 1–0 · Hard: Medvedev D. leads 1–0

Medvedev D.June 2026HalleGrass4-6 4-6
Medvedev D.January 2024Australian OpenHard5-7 6-2 6-4 1-0

Evidence

Medvedev D.Atmane T.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–25–5

Season win rate72% (47–18)43% (20–27)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21321876

Hard-court ELO20291773

Serve vs returnLast 63 vs 45 matches

1st-serve points won75%75%

Return points won41%30%

Aces / match8.87.8

ClutchLast 63 vs 45 matches

Break points saved64%63%

When it starts

CENTER COURT · After 2 matches · Followed by

1Basilashvili N. v Mannarino A.Starts at 11:30
2Tsitsipas S. v Duckworth J.Not before 13:00
3This match: Medvedev D. v Atmane T.This match
4Bublik A. v Khachanov K.Not before 19:30

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTER COURT · ~14:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast9°C · Mainly clear

Wind6 km/h

Humidity40%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Medvedev D.Atmane T.

5Days since last match2

2Matches · 7 days1

44Games · 7 days21

5Matches · 14 days1

112Games · 14 days21

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daniil Medvedev vs Terence Atmane — Almaty Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-23/atmane-vs-medvedev-almaty-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 23 October 2026).