Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Quarter-final

US Open · WTA · Quarter-final

CHNQ

Qinwen Zheng

#121WTA

1852ELO

1832Hard ELO

$283kYTD

23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWLLL

—

Sets

Wednesday, 9 September 2026 · 11:30

hard

Arthur Ashe Stadium · 1st on

KAZ2

Elena Rybakina

#2WTA

2122ELO

2110Hard ELO

$4.7MYTD

27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWLWWWLW

Zheng Q.

Rybakina E.

Qinwen Zheng faces Elena Rybakina in the US Open quarter-final on hard. Elena Rybakina holds the paper edge — ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 4–1, defending last year's round of 16. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Around the match

“I honestly didn't expect it. I played really well today. Feeling the ball was really good from my side. Naomi is a tough opponent but I'm very glad with the way I played.”
Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗
“Of course, I want it. I don't know anyone who wouldn't wish this. That's one of my goals. I try to do everything I can. Fight until the end of my next match.”
Rybakina E.WTA Tennis ↗
Zheng stages remarkable comeback from 0-5 down to upset Swiatek after returning from elbow surgery, reaching her third US Open quarterfinal.
Umpiry summary — not a quote
Zheng Q.usopen.org ↗
Zheng, ranked No. 121 after shoulder surgery, advances through qualifying to claim a major upset victory as a comeback storyline.
Umpiry summary — not a quote
Zheng Q.usopen.org ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC

Zheng Q.19%

Rybakina E.81%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Qinwen Zheng 148 games in 14 days, Elena Rybakina 74.
Last match: Elena Rybakina dropped just 5 games past Naomi Osaka.
Head-to-head: Elena Rybakina leads the head-to-head 4–1, 1–2 on hard. Last met at Madrid 2026.

Common opponents

Last 12 months

7 common opponents · Zheng Q. 3–4 · Rybakina E. 9–6

Rybakina E. better · same surface, 0 days apart▾

Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Zheng Q.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Rybakina E.

8.0

Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

1.5Hard Elo 1832

Surface ELO

8.5+278 Hard Elo edge

1.6Overall Elo 1852

ELO gap

8.4Overall Elo 2122

3.9Trails 1–2 on hard

H2H

6.1Leads 2–1 on hard

8.07 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

8.38 of last 10 on hard

9.07-match win streak

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.04 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

Opponent rise

5.0Opponent hot: 7 of last 10

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 vs 44 matches

Statistics

This season

Zheng Q.Rybakina E.

1st serve in·Even

56%

58%

1st serve points won·Even

73%

2nd serve points won·Even

49%

52%

Service points won·Even

63%

64%

Return points won·Slight edge

38%

43%

Break points saved·Even

64%

66%

Aces / match·Dominant

9.4

6.3

Double faults / match·Dominant

4.9

2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Zheng Q.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Zheng Q.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Zheng Q.Rybakina E.

Clutch Rating·Slight edge

Break points saved·Slight edge

Break points won·Even

Deciding sets·Even

Tiebreaks·Slight edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Serve & return on hard

Zheng Q.Rybakina E.

Serve

100

Return

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Freshness

Recent load

Zheng Q.Rybakina E.

Freshness·Clear edge

Zheng Q.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

1st on Arthur Ashe Stadium · Starting at 11:30 AM · up next on court

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

28°COvercast

Wind 18 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

1–4

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-04-21	Madrid	R32	clay	Elena Rybakina	4-6 6-4 6-3
2026-02-08	Doha	R16	hard	Elena Rybakina	4-6 6-2 7-5
2024-11-04	Riyadh Finals	RR	hard	Qinwen Zheng	7-6 3-6 6-1
2023-10-02	Beijing	R64	hard	Elena Rybakina	6-1 6-2
2022-06-27	Wimbledon	R32	grass	Elena Rybakina	7-6 7-5

View full head-to-head →

Qinwen Zheng vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Quarter-final

Around the match

Win Probability

Key context

Common opponents

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Serve & return on hard

Freshness

When it starts

Conditions

Head to head

Draw

Serve & return on hard