Coco Gauff vs Elena Rybakina — US Open Semi-final

US Open · WTA · Semi-final
Coco Gauff
USA4
Coco Gauff
#4WTA
2071ELO
2035Hard ELO
$5.5MYTD
$35MCAREER
22 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
1 — 2
Sets
Friday, 11 September 2026 ·
hard
Arthur Ashe Stadium · 2nd on
Elena Rybakina
KAZ2
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$5.4MYTD
$30MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLWWWL
Gauff C.
6-3 4-6 4-6
Rybakina E.
Gauff C.
6441
Rybakina E.
3662

Elena Rybakina defeated Coco Gauff in the US Open semifinals, advancing to the final with a 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 victory. The match was played on hard courts. Rybakina won the match in three sets.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Around the match

  • Rybakina overcame a left Achilles injury concern and has looked commanding as she prepares to become world No. 1.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Rybakina E.The New York Times ↗

  • “From where I was coming to this tournament, being injured and not practising, I think we came pretty far. Important to still enjoy.”

    Rybakina E.Roland-Garros 2026 ↗

  • “Elena is playing some great tennis. We played in Toronto—didn't go my way, so I have to learn from that match and keep fighting.”

    Gauff C.Roland-Garros 2026 ↗

  • Despite a lackluster quarterfinal with 42 unforced errors and serve issues, Gauff salvaged the match and showed resilience reminiscent of her 2023 US Open final comeback.

    Umpiry summary — not a quote

    Gauff C.Yahoo Sports ↗

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above. Lines marked “Umpiry summary” are written by Umpiry from the linked article, not quoted from it.

Key context

Head to head

1–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-13TorontoSFhardElena Rybakina7-5 2-6 2-6
2022-08-08TorontoR32hardCoco Gauff6-4 6-7 7-6
View full head-to-head →

Statistics

This season
Gauff C.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
42%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
64%
Return points won·Even
47%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
66%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.5
6.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.0
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Gauff C.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
93
99
Break points saved·Clear edge
81
96
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
99
98
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
99
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 23:50 UTC
Gauff C.39%
Rybakina E.61%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rybakina E. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Gauff C.
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.1Hard Elo 2035
Surface ELO
5.9+75 Hard Elo edge
4.4Overall Elo 2071
ELO gap
5.6Overall Elo 2122
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
10.010 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
8.58 of last 10 on hard
10.011-match win streak
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the last 16 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Gauff C.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Even
53
55

Gauff C.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d) · Rybakina E.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 94 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw