Jessica Pegula vs Sorana CirsteaUS Open Round of 16

US Open · WTA · Round of 16
#3WTA
2097ELO
2058Hard ELO
$3.5MYTD
32 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWWW
2 — 0
Sets
Sunday, 6 September 2026 ·
hard
Louis Armstrong Stadium · 2nd on
#17WTA
1957ELO
1914Hard ELO
$1.7MYTD
36 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWLLWW
Pegula J.
6-3 6-4
Cirstea S.
Pegula J.
662
Cirstea S.
340

Jessica Pegula defeated Sorana Cirstea in the Round of 16 at the US Open, advancing with a 6-3, 6-4 victory. Pegula hit 3 aces and 3 double faults, while converting 67% of her break points and securing 4 service breaks. Cirstea had 2 service breaks and 2 double faults, with no aces.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

31
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-08-19CincinnatiR16hardJessica Pegula2-6 6-4 5-7
2021-04-29MadridR64clayJessica Pegula7-6 6-3
2015-02-02Midland MI $100KR32hardJessica Pegula6-3 6-3
2011-02-07Midland MI 100KR32hardSorana Cirstea7-6(6) 6-3

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
63%
59%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
62%
Return points won·Even
46%
45%
Break points saved·Even
58%
56%
Aces / match·Even
4.1
4.6
Double faults / match·Even
1.5
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (40 vs 44). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
94
67
Break points saved·Dominant
86
33
Break points won·Slight edge
99
93
Deciding sets·Clear edge
99
82
Tiebreaks·Even
91
92

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Pegula J.76%
Cirstea S.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+144 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Hard Elo 1914
6.8Overall Elo 2096
ELO gap
3.2Overall Elo 1956
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
8.99 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.47 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
8.5Reached the semis here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R64 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
56
78

Pegula J.: played today · 4 matches, 89 games (7d) · Cirstea S.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 57 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
19°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 86%

Draw