Damir Dzumhur vs Matteo Arnaldi — Umag Quarter-final
Dzumhur D.
Damir Dzumhur faces Matteo Arnaldi in the Umag quarter-final on clay. Matteo Arnaldi holds the paper edge — ranked #34, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 240-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Arnaldi M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Damir Dzumhur comes in with 2 days of rest and 58 games in 14d, vs Matteo Arnaldi's 15 and 0.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Matteo Arnaldi grades 14 on serve, Damir Dzumhur 43 on return.
- Surface form: Damir Dzumhur 3 of 6, Matteo Arnaldi 6 of 6 on clay recently — Matteo Arnaldi the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadDzumhur D.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | R32 | clay | Matteo Arnaldi | 6-3 6-4 |