Marco Cecchinato vs Roman Andres Burruchaga — Umag Round of 32

Umag · ATP · Round of 32
Marco Cecchinato
ITA
Marco Cecchinato
#195ATP
1576ELO
1546Clay ELO
$149kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
33 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWWLLW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 14 July 2026 ·
clay
Roman Andres Burruchaga
ARG
Roman Andres Burruchaga
#65ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$446kYTD
$1.2MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLLWLW
Cecchinato M.
vs
Burruchaga R.

Marco Cecchinato faces Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Umag round of 32 on clay. Roman Andres Burruchaga is the paper favourite — ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage — but Marco Cecchinato arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Roman Andres Burruchaga's 3.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC
Cecchinato M.26%
Burruchaga R.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Burruchaga R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Cecchinato M.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Burruchaga R.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1546
Surface ELO
6.8+148 Clay Elo edge
3.3Overall Elo 1576
ELO gap
6.7Overall Elo 1711
3.4Trails 1–3 on clay
H2H
6.6Leads 3–1 on clay
8.08 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.54 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
6.2Won 70% in HR (23)
Country comfort
Context
6.0Reached qualifying here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Cecchinato M.Stable
Burruchaga R.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

33 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
Cecchinato M.Burruchaga R.
1st serve in·Even
62%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
56%
50%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
38%
43%
Break points saved·Even
64%
65%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cecchinato M.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Burruchaga R.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Cecchinato M.

Serve advantage — Burruchaga R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Cecchinato M.Burruchaga R.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
42
67
Break points saved·Clear edge
89
68
Break points won·Dominant
20
73
Deciding sets·Dominant
36
84
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Cecchinato M.Burruchaga R.
Freshness·Clear edge
69
91

Cecchinato M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 58 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CPartly cloudy
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 53%

Head to head

0–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-02-05CordobaQ2clayRoman Andres Burruchaga6-3 6-0