Marko Topo vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Umag Round of 32
Topo M.
Marko Topo faces Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Umag round of 32 on clay. Camilo Ugo Carabelli holds the paper edge — ranked #58, defending last year's semi-final, a roughly 340-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 03:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Ugo Carabelli C. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Marko Topo 83 games in 14 days, Camilo Ugo Carabelli 30.
- Under pressure: Camilo Ugo Carabelli has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 78 vs Marko Topo's 28).
- Last match: Marko Topo edged Lukas Neumayer in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (11 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadTopo M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 35 games (7d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
1st on COURT 2 · not before Starts At 16:00 · up next on court
- 1Topo M. v Ugo Carabelli C.This match
- 2Gomez F. v Mcdonald N.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.