Pablo Carreno Busta vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli — Umag
Carreno Busta P.
Pablo Carreno Busta faces Camilo Ugo Carabelli in the Umag match on clay. Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the paper favourite — ranked #58, leading the head-to-head 1–0, defending last year's semi-final — but Pablo Carreno Busta arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 8 on clay to Camilo Ugo Carabelli's 5.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Pablo Carreno Busta 44 games in 14 days, Camilo Ugo Carabelli 0.
- Last match: Camilo Ugo Carabelli dropped the opening set before beating Marko Topo 6–7 7–6 6–3.
- Last match: Pablo Carreno Busta dropped just 6 games past Matej Dodig.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadCarreno Busta P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Ugo Carabelli C.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | R128 | clay | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |