Marco Trungelliti vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Umag Round of 16
Trungelliti M.
Marco Trungelliti faces Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the Umag round of 16 on clay. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the paper favourite — ranked #20, a roughly 190-point clay Elo advantage — but Marco Trungelliti has won their only previous meeting, though none on clay.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 23:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Davidovich Fokina A. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Marco Trungelliti 52 games in 14 days, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 142.
- Under pressure: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 91 vs Marco Trungelliti's 50).
- Last match: Marco Trungelliti dropped just 5 games past Kyrian Jacquet.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadTrungelliti M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Davidovich Fokina A.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021-08-30 | US Open | R128 | hard | Marco Trungelliti | 5-7 6-3 7-5 6-7(3) 6-4 |