Damir Dzumhur vs Henrique Rocha — Umag Round of 32
Dzumhur D.
Damir Dzumhur faces Henrique Rocha in the Umag round of 32 on clay. Damir Dzumhur is the paper favourite — ranked #105, defending last year's semi-final — but Henrique Rocha arrives in form, winning all 6 of their last clay matches to Damir Dzumhur's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Rocha H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Damir Dzumhur comes in with 3 days of rest and 75 games in 14d, vs Henrique Rocha's 19 and 0.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Damir Dzumhur has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 70 vs 45).
- Surface form: Damir Dzumhur 2 of 6, Henrique Rocha 6 of 6 on clay recently — Henrique Rocha the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadDzumhur D.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d) · Rocha H.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.