Matej Dodig vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Umag Round of 32
Dodig M.
Matej Dodig faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the Umag round of 32 on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta holds the paper edge — ranked #65, a roughly 340-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 04:22 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Carreno Busta P. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Matej Dodig comes in with 1 days of rest and 128 games in 14d, vs Pablo Carreno Busta's 11 and 66.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Pablo Carreno Busta has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 78 vs 31).
- Surface form: Matej Dodig 4 of 8, Pablo Carreno Busta 6 of 8 on clay recently — Pablo Carreno Busta the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadDodig M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 128 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
1st on GORAN IVANISEVIC STADIUM STUDENAC ARENA · not before Starts At 16:00 · up next on court
- 1Dodig M. v Carreno Busta P.This match
- 2Cecchinato M. v Burruchaga R.
- 3Droguet T. v Blockx A.
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.