Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Umag
Etcheverry T.
Tomas Martin Etcheverry faces Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Umag match on clay. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the paper favourite — a roughly 70-point clay Elo advantage — but Daniel Merida Aguilar arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on clay to Tomas Martin Etcheverry's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Etcheverry T. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped just 5 games past Ziga Sesko.
- Surface form: Tomas Martin Etcheverry 3 of 7, Daniel Merida Aguilar 5 of 7 on clay recently — Daniel Merida Aguilar the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Daniel Merida Aguilar carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 41). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on clay
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the clay field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadEtcheverry T.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Merida Aguilar D.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.