Federico Agustin Gomez vs Matteo Arnaldi — Umag
Gomez F.
Federico Agustin Gomez faces Matteo Arnaldi in the Umag match on clay. Matteo Arnaldi is the paper favourite — ranked #34, a roughly 420-point clay Elo advantage — but Federico Agustin Gomez rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 20:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Arnaldi M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Federico Agustin Gomez comes in with 2 days of rest and 111 games in 14d, vs Matteo Arnaldi's 14 and 38.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Matteo Arnaldi has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 78 vs 36).
- Surface form: Federico Agustin Gomez 4 of 6, Matteo Arnaldi 5 of 6 on clay recently — Matteo Arnaldi the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGomez F.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 111 games (7d) · Arnaldi M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.