Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher — Modena Round of 16
Modena · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
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Sets
Wednesday, 10 June 2026 ·
clay
Lucia Bronzetti faces Julia Grabher in the Modena round of 16 on clay. Julia Grabher is the paper favourite — ranked #116, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage — but Lucia Bronzetti has won both their previous meetings. Lucia Bronzetti brings the better recent clay form (7 of 10).
Key context
- Last match: Lucia Bronzetti dropped the opening set before beating Xinyu Gao 4–6 6–3 6–1.
- Last match: Julia Grabher dropped just 6 games past Andrea Lazaro Garcia.
- Head-to-head: Lucia Bronzetti leads the head-to-head 2–0, 1–0 on clay. Last met at Bad Homburg 2023.
- Surface form: Lucia Bronzetti 7 of 10, Julia Grabher 5 of 10 on clay recently — Lucia Bronzetti the sharper of late.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTCBronzetti L.28%
Grabher J.72%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Grabher J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
3.9Clay Elo 1513
Surface ELO6.1+88 Clay Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1550
ELO gap5.8Overall Elo 1614
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H5.0First meeting on clay
7.17 of last 10 on clay
Surface form5.25 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count7.2Home country · 9/17 here
Country comfortContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Head to head
2–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-26 | Bad Homburg | R32 | grass | Lucia Bronzetti | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2023-05-22 | Rabat | F | clay | Lucia Bronzetti | 6-4 5-7 7-5 |
Statistics
Recent form61%1st serve in61%
59%1st serve points won+2%61%
46%2nd serve points won+4%42%
54%Service points won54%
46%Return points won+3%43%
49%Break points saved+2%47%
2Aces / match+0.51.5
2Double faults / match+2.94.9
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw
R32
R16
Quarter-finals
Semi-finals
Final
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Romero Gormaz L.
Sherif M.
Bronzetti L.
Grabher J.
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