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Win Probability

Sunday, 6 September 2026
19 rated matches · 10 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchIva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala49% · 51%Toss-up · US Open · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAryna Sabalenka vs Taylor Townsend93% · 7%Strong favourite · US Open · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day19 matches1910 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalUS Open · R32 · HardIva Jovic won 7-5 3-6 7-5Iva Jovic49%Alexandra Eala51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–3FinalUS Open · R32 · HardLearner Tien won 6-3 1-6 6-7(2) 6-3 6-4Jakub Mensik49%Learner Tien51%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalM25+H Bagneres-de-Bigorre · F · HardRaphael Perot won 4-6 6-2 6-3Robin Bertrand51%Raphael Perot49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalComo · F · ClayMatej Dodig won 6-3 7-6(5)Matej Dodig47%Juan Pablo Varillas53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R32 · HardBotic Van De Zandschulp won 3-6 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(6) 6-3Zizou Bergs55%Botic Van De Zandschulp45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW50 Saint-Palais-sur-Mer · F · ClayFiona Ferro won 2-6 6-3 7-5Fiona Ferro44%Clara Burel56%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalM15 Bali · F · HardKaran Singh won 7-5 7-6(3)Karan Singh43%Isaac Becroft57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalUS Open · R16 · HardLinda Noskova won 7-5 5-7 6-4Marta Kostyuk57%Linda Noskova43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalM15 Bologna · F · ClayManuel Mazza won 5-7 6-4 6-3Gabriele Bosio40%Manuel Mazza60%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalManacor · F · HardFelix Balshaw won 3-6 6-2 6-3Inaki Montes De La Torre60%Felix Balshaw40%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM25 Urayasu · F · HardNaoki Nakagawa won 6-3 7-6(5)Ryuki Matsuda38%Naoki Nakagawa62%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R16 · HardFrances Tiafoe won 7-6(1) 6-4 7-6(6)Daniil Medvedev64%Frances Tiafoe36%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 6–3FinalW15 Badalona · F · ClayAshley Lahey won 6-4 2-6 6-4Marianne Argyrokastriti35%Ashley Lahey65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R32 · HardNaomi Osaka won 6-3 3-6 7-5Naomi Osaka67%Elise Mertens33%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 3–7FinalUS Open · R16 · HardAlex Michelsen won 7-6(6) 6-4 6-4Alex Michelsen68%Tomas Martin Etcheverry32%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalUS Open · R16 · HardJessica Pegula won 6-3 6-4Jessica Pegula76%Sorana Cirstea24%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–4FinalUS Open · R16 · HardCarlos Alcaraz won 6-4 6-3 6-4Tommy Paul14%Carlos Alcaraz86%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 7–2FinalUS Open · R32 · HardAlexander Zverev won 6-2 7-6(2) 6-2Alexander Zverev91%Alejandro Tabilo9%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalUS Open · R16 · HardAryna Sabalenka won 6-4 6-3Aryna Sabalenka93%Taylor Townsend7%Strong favouriteFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 5 Sep11 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 13.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days4 Sep 2026W50 Leiria · QFS. Johnson beat Anastasia Gasanova 6-3 6-4Pre-match: S. Johnson 9%Surprise score91

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.