Win probability

Friday, 24 July 2026

20 matches selected · 11 tournaments · model last ran 17:50 UTC

Umpiry rates 20 matches on Friday, 24 July 2026. The closest is Michael Zheng v Adam Walton at 51 % — the model’s most uncertain call of the day. The most one-sided is Andrey Rublev v Luca Van Assche at 74 %. Probabilities come from a per-tour model trained on Elo, surface Elo, recent serve and return form and layoff.

Rated matches · ordered closest first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
15:10	Bloomfield Hills CHALLENGER · hard	QF	Zheng M.Walton A.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	1–0
10:45	Livesport Prague Open WTA · hard	QF	Bouzkova M.Valentova T.	51 %49 %	Toss-up	2–1
12:40	Tampere CHALLENGER · clay	QF	Barton H.Kasnikowski M.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	0–1
23:10	Winnipeg CHALLENGER · hard	R16	Holmgren A.Draxl L.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	1–1
06:30	M15 Bali ITF · hard	QF	Taguchi R.Becroft I.	52 %48 %	Toss-up	2–0
06:30	M15 Bali ITF · hard	QF	Boosarawongse T.Ryan Ziegann S.	54 %46 %	Toss-up	1–0
09:10	Hamburg WTA · clay	QF	Bondar A.Charaeva A.	55 %45 %	Toss-up	1–0
13:50	Livesport Prague Open WTA · hard	QF	Bejlek S.Tagger L.	55 %45 %	Toss-up	1–1
16:05	Estoril ATP · clay	QF	Blockx A.Burruchaga R.	55 %45 %	Toss-up	1–2
10:40	Kitzbuhel ATP · clay	SF	Hanfmann Y.Halys Q.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	0–3
02:00	W15 Brisbane 2 ITF · hard	QF	Uchijima M.Arakawa N.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	0–1
07:55	M25 Denia ITF · clay	QF	Angelini L.Lagutin P.	56 %44 %	Toss-up	0–1
16:40	W75 Cordenons ITF · clay	SF	Trevisan M.Brancaccio N.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	1–1
13:00	Hamburg WTA · clay	QF	Oliynykova O.Avanesyan E.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	—
09:05	Livesport Prague Open WTA · hard	QF	Snigur D.Tararudee L.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	1–0
12:40	Kitzbuhel ATP · clay	SF	Bublik A.Etcheverry T.	57 %43 %	Toss-up	3–0
11:10	Hamburg WTA · clay	QF	Badosa P.Sherif M.	59 %41 %	Slight edge	1–3
18:50	Estoril ATP · clay	QF	Darderi L.Faria J.	61 %39 %	Slight edge	2–1
15:10	Hamburg WTA · clay	QF	Kalinina A.Korpatsch T.	65 %35 %	Slight edge	0–1
13:10	Estoril ATP · clay	QF	Rublev A.Van Assche L.	74 %26 %	Clear favourite	1–1

Rated matches · ordered most one-sided first
Time	Tournament	Round	Match	Probability	Verdict	H2H
13:10	Estoril ATP · clay	QF	Rublev A.Van Assche L.	74 %26 %	Clear favourite	1–1

How to read this

Each row gives the model’s probability that the favourite wins, and the verdict says the same thing in words. Rows are ordered by how close the model thinks the match is, so the top of the table is where it is least sure. A 70 % favourite losing is not a broken model — it is the 30 %. Probabilities are not odds and take no account of any market.

How often the model has been right

Umpiry win-probability model accuracy by tour family, measured on the predictions the model made
Tour	Correct
ATP / WTA	66 %
Challenger (men)	64 %
Challenger (women)	68 %
ITF (men)	66 %
ITF (women)	64 %

Measured on the predictions the model actually made, not on a backtest — see Methodology.

Yesterday

Thursday, 23 July 2026 · 16 matches

Favourites won

9 / 16

Model expected

9.3

The model expected 9.3 favourites to win; 9 did. See yesterday’s page.

Biggest shock, last 7 days

23 Jul

W35 Gentofte

ITF · clay

R16

Rebecca Munk Mortensen beat Stephanie Vogt

Surprise score

Questions

How is the probability calculated?: A separate model for each tour, trained on Elo, surface-specific Elo, recent serve and return form and time since the player’s last match. It runs several times a day; the time of the last run is at the top of this page.
How often is the model right?: We publish it. The table above gives the hit rate for each tour family, measured on the predictions the model actually made — see Methodology for how it is computed.
Why are the closest matches at the top?: Rows are ordered by distance from 50 %, so the table opens where the model is least sure. “Most one-sided” reverses the order and groups the rows by tournament.
Is this a betting tip?: No. The page shows a model’s probability and how often that model has been right. There are no odds, no comparison with a market and no suggested stake.