Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa — Hamburg Quarter-final

Hamburg · WTA · Quarter-final

EGY

Mayar Sherif

#73WTA

1685ELO

1663Clay ELO

30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWWWW

—

Sets

Friday, 24 July 2026 · 12:30

clay

CENTER COURT · 2nd on

ESP

Paula Badosa

#93WTA

1780ELO

1684Clay ELO

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWWWWWW

Sherif M.

Badosa P.

Mayar Sherif faces Paula Badosa in the Hamburg quarter-final on clay. Mayar Sherif holds the paper edge — ranked #73, leading the head-to-head 2–1. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC

Sherif M.41%

Badosa P.59%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Badosa P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: Paula Badosa has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 88 vs Mayar Sherif's 4).
Last match: Mayar Sherif dropped just 5 games past Elsa Jacquemot.
Last match: Paula Badosa dropped just 5 games past Panna Udvardy.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sherif M.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Badosa P.

5.8

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.7Clay Elo 1663

Surface ELO

5.3+22 Clay Elo edge

3.8Overall Elo 1685

ELO gap

6.2Overall Elo 1780

7.0Leads 1–0 on clay

H2H

3.0Trails 0–1 on clay

10.010 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

8.89 of last 10 on clay

10.012-match win streak

Win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

19 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season

Sherif M.Badosa P.

1st serve in·Clear edge

78%

56%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

58%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

46%

39%

Service points won·Even

56%

Return points won·Even

45%

43%

Break points saved·Even

55%

52%

Aces / match·Dominant

1.1

4.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.9

7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Sherif M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Sherif M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Sherif M.Badosa P.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Sherif M.Badosa P.

Freshness·Slight edge

Sherif M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 117 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 123 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-slowfavours grinders

SlowFast

Weather forecast

18°COvercast

Wind 12 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

2–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2026-07-20	Iasi	F	clay	Mayar Sherif	6-4 4-0
2023-04-03	Charleston	R64	clay	Paula Badosa	6-3 6-1
2013-09-09	Lleida 10K	QF	clay	Mayar Sherif	6-3 6-0

Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa — Hamburg Quarter-final

Win Probability

Key context

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw