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Win Probability

Thursday, 23 July 2026
17 rated matches · 11 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchMatteo Martineau vs Gonzalo Villanueva49% · 51%Toss-up · Segovia · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteLuciano Darderi vs Pedro Martinez79% · 21%Clear favourite · Estoril · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day17 matches1711 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalSegovia · R16 · HardMatteo Martineau won 6-3 7-6(6)Matteo Martineau49%Gonzalo Villanueva51%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalKitzbuhel · QF · ClayYannick Hanfmann won 6-3 6-1Yannick Hanfmann51%Sebastian Baez49%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalW75 Cordenons · QF · ClayMia Ristic won 6-2 6-3Gabriela Ce52%Mia Ristic48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalPalermo · R16 · ClayMina Hodzic won 6-3 2-6 6-2Mina Hodzic53%Noemi Basiletti47%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBloomfield Hills · R16 · HardAndres Martin won 6-3 1-6 6-3Roger Pascual Ferra53%Andres Martin47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalTampere · R16 · ClayHenri Squire won 6-3 6-3Henri Squire54%Franco Roncadelli46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalKitzbuhel · QF · ClayTomas Martin Etcheverry won 6-2 7-5Tomas Martin Etcheverry54%Ignacio Buse46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalHamburg · R16 · ClayOleksandra Oliynykova won 7-6(3) 3-6 6-2Oleksandra Oliynykova55%Leyre Romero Gormaz45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalZug · R16 · ClayMarc Andrea Huesler won 6-2 7-5Marc Andrea Huesler45%Juan Bautista Torres55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalBloomfield Hills · R16 · HardJ J Wolf won 6-3 7-5J J Wolf55%Coleman Wong45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalWinnipeg · R16 · HardJohannus Monday won 4-6 6-3 6-3Johannus Monday55%Yuta Shimizu45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLivesport Prague Open · R16 · HardSara Bejlek won 6-1 6-1Maria Timofeeva44%Sara Bejlek56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalLivesport Prague Open · R16 · HardLanlana Tararudee won 7-6(4) 3-6 7-6(6)Nikola Bartunkova57%Lanlana Tararudee43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalKitzbuhel · QF · ClayQuentin Halys won 7-5 6-3Mariano Navone58%Quentin Halys42%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalKitzbuhel · QF · ClayAlexander Bublik won 6-3 6-2Alexander Bublik62%Alex Molcan38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalEstoril · R16 · ClayLuca Van Assche won 6-3 4-6 6-2Luca Van Assche33%Pablo Carreno Busta67%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalEstoril · R16 · ClayLuciano Darderi won 6-0 6-1Pedro Martinez21%Luciano Darderi79%Clear favouriteFavourite wonH2H 4–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.