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Win Probability

Wednesday, 22 July 2026
14 rated matches · 6 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchSebastian Baez vs Arthur Rinderknech50% · 50%Toss-up · Kitzbuhel · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta66% · 34%Slight edge · Kitzbuhel · R16 · Analyze match →
Rated that day14 matches146 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalKitzbuhel · R16 · ClaySebastian Baez won 7-6(6) 2-6 6-4Sebastian Baez50%Arthur Rinderknech50%Toss-upH2H 1–0FinalZug · R16 · ClayAnton Matusevich won 7-5 6-4Alvaro Guillen Meza50%Anton Matusevich50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalHamburg · R32 · ClayElsa Jacquemot won 7-5 6-1Tessa Johanna Brockmann52%Elsa Jacquemot48%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalHamburg · R16 · ClayTamara Korpatsch won 6-0 3-6 6-3Tamara Korpatsch52%Julia Stusek48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalEstoril · R16 · ClayRoman Andres Burruchaga won 6-1 4-6 6-3Nuno Borges53%Roman Andres Burruchaga47%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalKitzbuhel · R16 · ClayMariano Navone won 6-0 6-3Jan Lennard Struff46%Mariano Navone54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalLivesport Prague Open · R16 · HardDominika Salkova won 6-1 6-1Dominika Salkova54%Oceane Dodin46%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalPalermo · R16 · ClayYasmine Kabbaj won 7-5 6-2Ekaterine Gorgodze46%Yasmine Kabbaj54%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalHamburg · R16 · ClayAnna Bondar won 6-1 3-6 7-5Anna Bondar58%Noma Noha Akugue42%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalKitzbuhel · R16 · ClayAlex Molcan won 6-3 3-6 7-5Alex Molcan59%Daniel Altmaier41%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalLivesport Prague Open · R16 · HardMarie Bouzkova won 7-5 6-4Marie Bouzkova62%Carol Young Suh Lee38%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalKitzbuhel · R16 · ClayQuentin Halys won 6-3 6-4Quentin Halys36%Valentin Vacherot64%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalKitzbuhel · R16 · ClayIgnacio Buse won 2-6 6-2 6-2Kilian Feldbausch35%Ignacio Buse65%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–2FinalKitzbuhel · R16 · ClayAlexander Bublik won 6-3 7-5Alexander Bublik66%Facundo Diaz Acosta34%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 1–0
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 21 Jul7 of 15 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 8.2 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days21 Jul 2026Segovia · R32Gonzalo Villanueva beat Ilya Ivashka 6-3 6-3Pre-match: Gonzalo Villanueva 5%Surprise score95

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.