Jan Lennard Struff vs Mariano Navone — Kitzbuhel Round of 16
Lennard Struff J.
Jan Lennard Struff faces Mariano Navone in the Kitzbuhel round of 16 on clay. Mariano Navone holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Navone M. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Jan Lennard Struff comes in with 14 days of rest and 34 games in 14d, vs Mariano Navone's 1 and 34.
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Jan Lennard Struff grades 30 on serve, Mariano Navone 79 on return.
- Last match: Jan Lennard Struff dropped the opening set before beating Alexander Shevchenko 3–6 7–6 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadLennard Struff J.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Navone M.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 34 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–1| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Q1 | hard | Mariano Navone | 6-7 6-2 6-4 |