Alexander Bublik vs Facundo Diaz Acosta — Kitzbuhel Round of 16
KAZ1
Bublik A.
Alexander Bublik faces Facundo Diaz Acosta in the Kitzbuhel round of 16 on clay. Alexander Bublik holds the paper edge — ranked #11, a roughly 150-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Bublik A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Alexander Bublik 69 games in 14 days, Facundo Diaz Acosta 127.
- Under pressure: Alexander Bublik has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 79 vs Facundo Diaz Acosta's 58).
- Last match: Facundo Diaz Acosta dropped the opening set before beating Federico Cina 4–6 6–3 6–4.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBublik A.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d) · Diaz Acosta F.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.