Nuno Borges vs Roman Andres BurruchagaEstoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
#48ATP
1769ELO
1726Clay ELO
$811kYTD
$5.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLWLWWW
Sets
Wednesday, 22 July 2026 ·
clay
#60ATP
1711ELO
1694Clay ELO
$458kYTD
$1.3MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWWLLLLW
Borges N.
vs
Burruchaga R.

Nuno Borges faces Roman Andres Burruchaga in the Estoril round of 16 on clay. Nuno Borges holds the paper edge — ranked #48, a roughly 30-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Borges N.54%
Burruchaga R.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Clay Elo 1694
5.7Overall Elo 1769
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1711
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.65 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
73%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
65%
61%
Return points won·Slight edge
34%
43%
Break points saved·Even
62%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.3
2.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.2
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Borges N.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Burruchaga R.

Burruchaga R.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Borges N.

Serve advantage — Burruchaga R.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
46
67
Break points saved·Clear edge
90
68
Break points won·Dominant
10
73
Deciding sets·Slight edge
90
84
Tiebreaks·Dominant
34
65

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
82
75

Borges N.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 59 games (7d) · Burruchaga R.: 4 days rest · 4 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°CMainly clear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw