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Win Probability

Tuesday, 21 July 2026
15 rated matches · 8 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchLaura Samson vs Maya Joint50% · 50%Toss-up · Livesport Prague Open · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteDaniel Merida Aguilar vs Kyrian Jacquet65% · 35%Slight edge · Estoril · R32 · Analyze match →
Rated that day15 matches158 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalLivesport Prague Open · R32 · HardMaya Joint won 6-4 3-6 6-2Laura Samson50%Maya Joint50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalSegovia · R32 · HardFlorent Bax won 6-2 6-1Dan Added51%Florent Bax49%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalKitzbuhel · R32 · ClayJan Lennard Struff won 3-6 7-6(5) 6-4Jan Lennard Struff52%Alexander Shevchenko48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 3–0FinalEstoril · R32 · ClayHugo Gaston won 5-0Hugo Gaston52%Damir Dzumhur48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalPalermo · R32 · ClayAlice Rame won 6-1 6-2Alice Rame52%Anastasia Tikhonova48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalLivesport Prague Open · R32 · HardMaria Timofeeva won 6-3 6-4Maria Timofeeva47%Aliaksandra Sasnovich53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalKitzbuhel · R32 · ClayQuentin Halys won 7-6(4) 6-4Laslo Djere54%Quentin Halys46%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalHamburg · R32 · ClayLeyre Romero Gormaz won 6-2 6-2Leyre Romero Gormaz45%Veronika Erjavec55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalKitzbuhel · R32 · ClaySebastian Baez won 6-3 3-6 6-4Sebastian Baez45%Miomir Kecmanovic55%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–3FinalTampere · R32 · ClayGuido Ivan Justo won 6-3 6-1Genaro Alberto Olivieri55%Guido Ivan Justo45%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 1–2FinalKitzbuhel · R32 · ClayAlex Molcan won 6-4 6-4Alex Molcan56%Sebastian Ofner44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 2–2FinalEstoril · R32 · ClayJaime Faria won 6-3 6-4Botic Van De Zandschulp44%Jaime Faria56%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalBloomfield Hills · R32 · HardMark Lajal won 6-4 5-7 6-4Mark Lajal56%Darwin Blanch44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalHamburg · R32 · ClayAlina Charaeva won 3-6 7-5 6-1Sara Sorribes Tormo42%Alina Charaeva58%Slight edgeFavourite wonH2H 0–1FinalEstoril · R32 · ClayKyrian Jacquet won 1-6 6-1 7-5Daniel Merida Aguilar65%Kyrian Jacquet35%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 20 Jul2 of 5 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 2.9 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days19 Jul 2026Winnipeg · SFRenta Tokuda beat Kenta Miyoshi 6-7(7) 6-3 6-2Pre-match: Renta Tokuda 5%Surprise score95

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.