UMPIRY
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Win Probability

Monday, 20 July 2026
5 rated matches · 5 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchTitouan Droguet vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli48% · 52%Toss-up · Estoril · R32 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouritePaula Badosa vs Mayar Sherif64% · 36%Slight edge · Iasi · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day5 matches55 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 19 Jul3 of 6 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 3.4 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days19 Jul 2026Winnipeg · SFRenta Tokuda beat Kenta Miyoshi 6-7(7) 6-3 6-2Pre-match: Renta Tokuda 5%Surprise score95

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.