Federica Urgesi vs Elizara Yaneva — Palermo Round of 32

Palermo · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

ITA

Federica Urgesi

#287WTA

1546ELO

1532Clay ELO

21 yrs

Last 10

LLWLWLLWWW

—

Sets

Monday, 20 July 2026 · 11:00

clay

BUL8

Elizara Yaneva

#196WTA

1549ELO

1497Clay ELO

19 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWWLL

Urgesi F.

Yaneva E.

Federica Urgesi faces Elizara Yaneva in the Palermo round of 32 on clay. Elizara Yaneva holds the paper edge — ranked #196. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Urgesi F.54%

Yaneva E.46%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Federica Urgesi 40 games in 14 days, Elizara Yaneva 64.
Surface form: Federica Urgesi 4 of 9, Elizara Yaneva 5 of 9 on clay recently — Elizara Yaneva the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Urgesi F.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Yaneva E.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

5.4+35 Clay Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.6Clay Elo 1497

5.0Overall Elo 1546

ELO gap

5.0Overall Elo 1549

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.67 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

5.45 of last 10 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

26 vs 28 matches

Statistics

This season

Urgesi F.Yaneva E.

1st serve in·Even

69%

65%

1st serve points won·Even

61%

62%

2nd serve points won·Even

48%

45%

Service points won·Even

57%

56%

Return points won·Even

48%

47%

Break points saved·Slight edge

50%

55%

Aces / match·Even

2.0

1.7

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.8

3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Urgesi F.serving44% hold

wins 47% of points on serve vs Yaneva E.

Yaneva E.serving39% hold

wins 46% of points on serve vs Urgesi F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Urgesi F.Yaneva E.

Freshness·Clear edge

Urgesi F.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 40 games (7d) · Yaneva E.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

36°CClear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 31%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.