Tomas Martin Etcheverry vs Ignacio BuseKitzbuhel Quarter-final

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Quarter-final
#31ATP
1812ELO
1767Clay ELO
$1.4MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
27 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLLLWL
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
#35ATP
1822ELO
1786Clay ELO
$949kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWLWL
Etcheverry T.
vs
Buse I.

Tomas Martin Etcheverry faces Ignacio Buse in the Kitzbuhel quarter-final on clay. Tomas Martin Etcheverry is the paper favourite — ranked #31 — but Ignacio Buse arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay to Tomas Martin Etcheverry's 1.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Etcheverry T.57%
Buse I.43%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.8Clay Elo 1767
Surface ELO
5.2+19 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1822
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.55 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.68 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
64%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
73%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
55%
49%
Service points won·Even
67%
64%
Return points won·Even
35%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
64%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.3
5.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Etcheverry T.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Buse I.

Buse I.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Etcheverry T.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
38
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
93
87
Break points won·Clear edge
4
28
Deciding sets·Slight edge
74
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
32
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
95
76

Etcheverry T.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d) · Buse I.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
20°CPartly cloudy
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 52%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw