Andrey Rublev vs Luca Van Assche — Estoril Quarter-final
RUS1
Rublev A.
Andrey Rublev faces Luca Van Assche in the Estoril quarter-final on clay. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #14, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 230-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Rublev A. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Andrey Rublev has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 84 vs 15).
- Last match: Andrey Rublev dropped just 2 games past Timofey Skatov.
- Fatigue load: Luca Van Assche carries the heavier recent load — 4 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRublev A.: 4 days rest · 4 matches, 99 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-29 | Washington | R32 | hard | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 6-3 6-4 |