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Win Probability

Saturday, 25 July 2026
20 rated matches · 16 tournamentsFrozen pre-match predictions · final results
Closest matchAdrian Oetzbach vs Raphael Perot50% · 50%Toss-up · M25 Metzingen · SF · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteAlexander Bublik vs Quentin Halys68% · 32%Clear favourite · Kitzbuhel · F · Analyze match →
Rated that day20 matches2016 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability, frozen at the start · with final result
FinalM25 Metzingen · SF · ClayRaphael Perot won 6-3 6-3Adrian Oetzbach50%Raphael Perot50%Toss-upH2H 0–1FinalM25 Ollersbach · SF · ClayFilip Jeff Planinsek won 6-2 6-4Filip Jeff Planinsek52%Tommaso Compagnucci48%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalM15 Brisbane · SF · HardMatthew Dellavedova won 3-3Matthew Dellavedova47%Matt Hulme53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalLivesport Prague Open · SF · HardDaria Snigur won 7-6(4) 6-3Tereza Valentova47%Daria Snigur53%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalPalermo · SF · ClayFiona Ferro won 6-2 6-3Fiona Ferro47%Lucia Bronzetti53%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalWinnipeg · QF · HardLiam Draxl won 7-6(6) 6-4Liam Draxl55%Clement Chidekh45%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–1FinalM25 Ollersbach · SF · ClayMathys Erhard won 7-6(0) 6-1Andres Martin45%Mathys Erhard55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–0FinalHamburg · SF · ClayAnna Bondar won 7-6(3) 4-6 7-6(2)Elina Avanesyan45%Anna Bondar55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 1–2FinalW100 Evansville · SF · HardCaroline Dolehide won 7-5 6-4Renata Zarazua45%Caroline Dolehide55%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 4–2FinalEstoril · SF · ClayLuca Van Assche won 6-4 7-5Luca Van Assche56%Hugo Gaston44%Toss-upFavourite wonH2H 0–3FinalM25 Sao Paulo · SF · ClayPaulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos won 7-6(6) 6-4Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos43%Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez57%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 3–2FinalM25 Denia · SF · ClayPavel Lagutin won 6-2 6-4Carlos Lopez Montagud57%Pavel Lagutin43%Toss-upUnderdog wonH2H 2–0FinalSegovia · SF · HardMatteo Martineau won 6-3 5-7 7-6(4)Matteo Martineau42%Oliver Crawford58%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalBloomfield Hills · SF · HardJacob Fearnley won 6-3 6-4Jacob Fearnley41%Michael Zheng59%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalEstoril · SF · ClayAlexander Blockx won 5-7 7-6(1) 7-6(5)Alexander Blockx41%Luciano Darderi59%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–0FinalW75 Vacaria · SF · ClayLucciana Perez Alarcon won 7-6(2) 1-6 7-6(8)Lucciana Perez Alarcon39%Daria Egorova61%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 1–1FinalHamburg · SF · ClayTamara Korpatsch won 6-1 2-0Mayar Sherif62%Tamara Korpatsch38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 3–1FinalLivesport Prague Open · SF · HardLilli Tagger won 6-7(5) 6-3 7-6(4)Lilli Tagger37%Barbora Krejcikova63%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–1FinalM15 Bali · SF · HardRyuki Matsuda won 7-6(8) 6-3Ryuki Matsuda33%Ryotaro Taguchi67%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–2FinalKitzbuhel · F · ClayQuentin Halys won 6-4 7-6(6)Alexander Bublik68%Quentin Halys32%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonH2H 0–2
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,781—66%
Challenger Men3,701—63%
Challenger Women919—65%
ITF Men5,353—67%
ITF Women5,147—67%
Yesterday · 24 Jul9 of 19 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 10.7 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days24 Jul 2026W15 Kursumlijska Banja 10 · QFEmma Ottavia Ghirardato beat Ana Ivanovic 6-3 3-6 6-2Pre-match: Emma Ottavia Ghirardato 14%Surprise score86

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.