Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos vs Lorenzo Joaquin RodriguezM25 Sao Paulo Semi-final

M25 Sao Paulo · ITF · Semi-final
#528ATP
1154ELO
1144Clay ELO
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
#463ATP
1219ELO
1209Clay ELO
26 yrs · 196 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWW
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
7-6 6-4
Rodriguez L.
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.
7862
Rodriguez L.
6640

Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos defeated Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 7-6, 6-4 in the semifinals of the M25 Sao Paulo tournament on clay. Saraiva Dos Santos converted 50% of his break points, compared to 25% for Rodriguez, and held a slight edge in first-serve win percentage at 73% to 70%. Saraiva Dos Santos won two service breaks to Rodriguez's one.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
61%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
39%
45%
Break points saved·Even
59%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.2
1.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.6
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.43%
Rodriguez L.57%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.2Clay Elo 1144
Surface ELO
5.8+65 Clay Elo edge
4.2Overall Elo 1154
ELO gap
5.8Overall Elo 1218
5.3Split 2–2 on clay
H2H
4.7Split 2–2 on clay
5.46 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.73 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
76

Andre Saraiva Dos Santos P.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 78 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 3 km/hHumidity 74%

Draw