Alexander Blockx vs Luciano Darderi — Estoril Semi-final

Estoril · ATP · Semi-final
BEL4
Alexander Blockx
#38ATP
1906ELO
1868Clay ELO
$901kYTD
$1.8MCAREER
21 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLWLWLWW
—
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
Luciano Darderi
ITA2
Luciano Darderi
#21ATP
1835ELO
1836Clay ELO
$1.3MYTD
$4.7MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLWWWLLLL
Blockx A.
vs
Darderi L.

Alexander Blockx faces Luciano Darderi in the Estoril semi-final on clay. Luciano Darderi holds the paper edge — ranked #21.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Blockx A.41%
Darderi L.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Darderi L. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
12 common opponents · Blockx A. 7–8 · Darderi L. 9–7
Darderi L. better · same surface, 2 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Blockx A.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Darderi L.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.4+32 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Clay Elo 1836
5.9Overall Elo 1906
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1834
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.07 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.37 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 23 matches

Statistics

This season
Blockx A.Darderi L.
1st serve in·Even
60%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
77%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
50%
Service points won·Even
67%
64%
Return points won·Even
36%
38%
Break points saved·Clear edge
74%
56%
Aces / match·Even
6.7
6.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Blockx A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Darderi L.

Darderi L.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Blockx A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Blockx A.Darderi L.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
71
56
Break points saved·Clear edge
97
82
Break points won·Clear edge
27
10
Deciding sets·Even
95
93
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
87
96

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Blockx A.Darderi L.
Freshness·Slight edge
76
69

Blockx A.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Darderi L.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CMainly clear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw