Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Maria Sakkari

UMPIRY

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongQuarter-finalHardFri 6 Nov · 14:00

Aliaksandra SasnovichWTA #101 · BLR44%

VSToss-up

Maria Sakkari(4)WTA #30 · GRE56%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

44%56%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Sasnovich A.6.1/10

Even match

Sakkari M.6.6/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+99 Hard Elo edgeSupports Sakkari M.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1812Supports Sakkari M.

Recent run4-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.

Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Sakkari M.

Opponent formOpponent hot: 8 of last 10Against the prediction · Sasnovich A.

ELO1 875

Hard ELO1 781

Last 108–2

Age32

Height174 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $379K

ELO1 944

Hard ELO1 823

Last 106–4

Age31

Height172 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $15.4M2026 $1.7M

Aliaksandra Sasnovich faces Maria Sakkari in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong quarter-final on hard. Maria Sakkari is the paper favourite — ranked #30, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Aliaksandra Sasnovich arrives in form, winning 8 of their last 10 on hard to Maria Sakkari's 6 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Aliaksandra Sasnovich comes in with 1 days of rest and 186 games in 14d, vs Maria Sakkari's 1 and 71.
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Maria Sakkari has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 79 vs 30).
Last match: Maria Sakkari dropped the opening set before beating Maya Joint 4–6 6–3 6–3.

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months

Sasnovich A. and Sakkari M. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Sasnovich A. went 10–6 (63%) against them, Sakkari M. 6–8 (43%). Sasnovich A. came out better against 4 of 12 comparable opponents, Sakkari M. against 2 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (lower-tier event).

10–663%Sasnovich A. · better vs 4Record vs common opponents6–843%Sakkari M. · better vs 2

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

21–15Sets15–18

185–159Games146–153

1–2Tiebreaks1–3

3–1Deciding sets2–3

vs Andreeva M.#3L2-6 2-6Singapore · hardL0-6 4-6Australian Open · hard
vs Muchova K.#7L2-6 4-6Stuttgart · clayL6-3 4-6 1-6Doha · hard
vs Paolini J.#35L1-6 2-6Australian Open · hardW6-4 6-2Doha · hard

Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Gibson T.#36W6-1 6-4Beijing · hardL1-6 6-4 2-6Singapore · hard
vs Rakhimova K.#44W6-4 6-4Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo · hardW6-2 5-7 6-1Cincinnati · hard
vs Pliskova K.#51L4-6 4-6Linz · hardL4-6 6-7Madrid · clay
vs Starodubtseva Y.#54W6-4 7-5Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo · hardL6-1 6-7(4) 2-6US Open · hard
vs Badosa P.#57L5-7 3-6Miami · hardL3-6 4-6Charleston · clay
vs Tauson C.#58W6-2 6-3Brisbane · hardW6-3 6-3Wimbledon · grass
vs Kasatkina D.#73W7-5 6-0Singapore · hardL6-7 4-6Adelaide · hard
vs Lee C.#153W6-2 6-1Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong · hardW6-1 6-4Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong · hard
vs Hunter S.#161W5-7 6-1 7-5Wimbledon · grassW6-2 6-2Beijing · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Sakkari M. leads 1–0

Sakkari M.June 2023BerlinGrass6-2 6-1

Evidence

Sasnovich A.Sakkari M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss8–26–4

Season win rate61% (42–27)56% (28–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18751944

Hard-court ELO17811823

Serve vs returnLast 65 vs 50 matches

1st-serve points won65%65%

Return points won46%43%

Aces / match2.93.0

ClutchLast 65 vs 50 matches

Break points saved58%58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

14:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast27°C · Drizzle

Wind16 km/h

Humidity72%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Sasnovich A.Sakkari M.

1Days since last match1

4Matches · 7 days2

82Games · 7 days45

8Matches · 14 days3

186Games · 14 days71

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Maria Sakkari — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-06/sakkari-vs-sasnovich-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 6 November 2026).