Maria Sakkari vs Yuliia Starodubtseva — US Open Round of 64

US Open · WTA · Round of 64
Maria Sakkari
GRE32
Maria Sakkari
#33WTA
1812ELO
1796Hard ELO
$1.1MYTD
31 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLWWWW
—
Sets
Thursday, 3 September 2026 ·
hard
Yuliia Starodubtseva
UKR
Yuliia Starodubtseva
#78WTA
1759ELO
1668Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWWLLLLLL
Sakkari M.
vs
Starodubtseva Y.

Maria Sakkari faces Yuliia Starodubtseva in the US Open round of 64 on hard. Maria Sakkari holds the paper edge — ranked #33, defending last year's round of 32, a roughly 130-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Sakkari M.65%
Starodubtseva Y.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Sakkari M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Sakkari M. 1–0 · Starodubtseva Y. 1–0 · small sample
Both won · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sakkari M.
7.1
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Starodubtseva Y.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.6+128 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.4Hard Elo 1668
5.7Overall Elo 1812
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1759
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.67 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
6.0Reached the R32 here last year
Defending pts
6.0Reached the R128 here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
Sakkari M.Starodubtseva Y.
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
59%
60%
Return points won·Even
42%
46%
Break points saved·Even
60%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.0
1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Sakkari M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Starodubtseva Y.

Starodubtseva Y.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Sakkari M.

Serve advantage — Starodubtseva Y.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Sakkari M.Starodubtseva Y.
Clutch Rating·Even
79
75
Break points saved·Slight edge
78
89
Break points won·Even
91
95
Deciding sets·Clear edge
78
66
Tiebreaks·Even
77
76

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Sakkari M.Starodubtseva Y.
Freshness·Even
78
78

Sakkari M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Starodubtseva Y.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 52 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 80%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw