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Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 16

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongR16HardWed 4 Nov · 18:30Centre Court · After 2 matches
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
46%54%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Joint M.5.0/10
Heavy underdog
Sakkari M.6.7/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+139 Hard Elo edgeSupports Sakkari M.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1812Supports Sakkari M.
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Sakkari M.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
ELO1 860
Hard ELO1 747
Last 107–3
Age20
Height167 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.6M2026 $1.3M
ELO1 937
Hard ELO1 817
Last 106–4
Age31
Height172 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.4M2026 $1.7M

Maya Joint faces Maria Sakkari in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong round of 16 on hard. Maria Sakkari holds the paper edge — ranked #30, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

10 shared · last 12 months

Joint M. and Sakkari M. faced 10 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Joint M. went 3–8 (27%) against them, Sakkari M. 7–7 (50%). Sakkari M. came out better against 4 of 10 comparable opponents, Joint M. against 2.

3–827%Joint M. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents7–750%Sakkari M. · better vs 4
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
9–18Sets16–17
96–134Games149–155
1–0Tiebreaks1–2
2–3Deciding sets3–3
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Joint M.Sakkari M.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss7–3 (ahead)6–4
Season win rate47% (24–27)55% (27–22) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18601937 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO17471817 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 49 matches each
1st-serve points won58%64% (ahead)
Return points won44% (ahead)43%
Aces / match1.92.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 49 matches each
Break points saved56%58% (ahead)

When it starts

Centre Court · After 2 matches · Not before 6:30 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Centre Court · 18:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast25°C · Drizzle
Wind17 km/h
Humidity83%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Joint M.Sakkari M.
4 — fresherDays since last match1
3Matches · 7 days2 — fresher
78Games · 7 days43 — fresher
6Matches · 14 days2 — fresher
162Games · 14 days43 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Maya Joint vs Maria Sakkari — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-04/joint-vs-sakkari-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 4 November 2026).