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Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 16

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongR16HardWed 4 Nov · ~15:30Centre Court · After 1 match
Claire LiuWTA #102 · USA49%
VSToss-up
Katie Boulter(8)WTA #49 · GBR51%
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
49%51%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Liu C.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Boulter K.6.7/10
Slight advantage
Why
Surface+160 Hard Elo edgeSupports Boulter K.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1831Supports Boulter K.
Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players
ELO1 845
Hard ELO1 695
Last 106–4
Age26
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $477K
ELO1 887
Hard ELO1 765
Last 105–5
Age30
Height180 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.0M2026 $1.0M

Claire Liu faces Katie Boulter in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong round of 16 on hard. Katie Boulter holds the paper edge — ranked #49, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Katie Boulter has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 54 vs 21).
  • Last match: Claire Liu dropped just 6 games past Tatiana Prozorova.
  • Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Common opponents

1 shared · last 12 months

Liu C. and Boulter K. faced 1 of the same opponent in the last 12 months. Liu C. went 1–0 (100%) against them, Boulter K. 1–0 (100%).

1–0100%Liu C. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–0100%Boulter K. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
2–1Sets2–1
17–16Games15–12
1–0Tiebreaks0–0
1–0Deciding sets1–0

Only 1 common opponent — too few for any conclusion. Shown without assessment.

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Liu C.Boulter K.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–4 (ahead)5–5
Season win rate66% (43–22) (ahead)55% (27–22)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO18451887 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO16951765 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 62 vs 47 matches
1st-serve points won62%66% (ahead)
Return points won47% (ahead)44%
Aces / match3.0 (ahead)2.3
ClutchLast 62 vs 47 matches
Break points saved55%55%

When it starts

Centre Court · After 1 match · Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Centre Court · ~15:30 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast26°C · Drizzle
Wind18 km/h
Humidity76%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Liu C.Boulter K.
1Days since last match1
3Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
76Games · 7 days21 — fresher
4Matches · 14 days4
95Games · 14 days80 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Claire Liu vs Katie Boulter — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-04/boulter-vs-liu-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 4 November 2026).