Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino — Vienna Round of 16
Why
Surface+246 Hard Elo edgeSupports Mensik J.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1931Supports Mensik J.
Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Mannarino A.
Long matches3 three-setters in 14 daysSupports Mensik J.
Opponent formOpponent hot: 7 of last 10Against the prediction · Mannarino A.
ELO2 069
Hard ELO1 924
Last 105–5
Age21
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $7.4M2026 $2.5M
ELO1 922
Hard ELO1 797
Last 107–3
Age38
Height180 cm
PlaysLeft
EarningsCareer $15.6M2026 $1.3M
Jakub Mensik faces Adrian Mannarino in the Vienna round of 16 on hard. Jakub Mensik is the paper favourite — ranked #16, a roughly 250-point hard Elo advantage — but Adrian Mannarino has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Adrian Mannarino brings the better recent hard form (7 of 10).
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Jakub Mensik 39 games in 14 days, Adrian Mannarino 119.
- Last match: Adrian Mannarino recovered from a 0–6 opening set to beat Ignacio Buse.
- Last match: Jakub Mensik dropped just 4 games past Lukas Neumayer.
Common opponents
12 shared · last 12 monthsMensik J. and Mannarino A. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Mensik J. went 10–5 (67%) against them, Mannarino A. 6–8 (43%). Mensik J. came out better against 6 of 12 comparable opponents, Mannarino A. against 2.
10–567%Mensik J. · better vs 6Record vs common opponents6–843%Mannarino A. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
26–17Sets14–23
215–199Games154–193
4–1Tiebreaks3–1
2–2Deciding sets3–0
vs De Minaur A.#10W0-6 6-2 6-2 6-3Roland Garros · clayL4-6 0-6s Hertogenbosch · grass
vs Tien L.#18L3-6 6-1 7-6(2) 3-6 4-6US Open · hardW7-5 6-4Washington · hard
vs Bublik A.#20W6-4 7-6(5)Beijing · hardL3-6 1-6 1-6US Open · hard
Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴
vs Rublev A.#22W6-3 4-6 2-6 6-3Roland Garros · clayW6-4 3-6 6-3Almaty · hard- vs Khachanov K.#24W6-4 7-6Madrid Masters · clayL2-6 4-6Shanghai Masters · hard
vs Bergs Z.#39L2-6 6-7United Cup · hardL4-6 3-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Tirante T.#51L7-5 4-6 4-6Cincinnati · hardW4-6 3-6 6-3 6-3 6-3US Open · hard
vs Kecmanovic M.#58W6-3 6-3Shanghai Masters · hardW7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(5)Beijing · hard
vs Droguet T.#72W6-3 6-2 6-4Roland Garros · clayW6-2 6-4 6-1Wimbledon · grass
vs Carreno-Busta P.#74W7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6 6-3Australian Open · hardL3-6 4-6Beijing · hard- vs Hijikata R.#85W6-3 6-4Cincinnati · hardL3-6 3-6 1-6Australian Open · hard
vs Fearnley J.#86W6-3 3-6 6-3Montreal · hardL6-7(3) 4-6Montreal · hard
Evidence
Mensik J.Mannarino A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate64% (37–21) (ahead)45% (26–32)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO2069 (ahead)1922
Hard-court ELO1924 (ahead)1797
Serve vs returnLast 56 vs 57 matches
1st-serve points won78% (ahead)71%
Return points won36% (ahead)35%
Aces / match11.2 (ahead)4.8
ClutchLast 56 vs 57 matches
Break points saved62% (ahead)56%
Draw
Odds
Cite this
Umpiry, "Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino — Vienna Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-28/mannarino-vs-mensik-vienna-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 28 October 2026).