Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Australian Open Round of 128

Australian Open · ATP · Round of 128
Jakub Mensik
CZE16
Jakub Mensik
#18ATP
1931ELO
1893Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWWL
3 — 2
Sets
Monday, 19 January 2026
hard
Pablo Carreno Busta
ESP
Pablo Carreno Busta
#71ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Mensik J.
7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6 6-3
Carreno Busta P.
Mensik J.
7427763
Carreno Busta P.
5666132

Jakub Mensik defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6 6-3 in the Australian Open round of 128 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jakub Mensik came in ranked #18, leading the head-to-head 2–0, defending last year's round of 32. Jakub Mensik extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Jakub Mensik closed it out in five sets, 7–5 4–6 2–6 7–6 6–3.

Head to head

2–0
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-11-20Davis Cup Finals QF: ESP vs CZERRhardJakub Mensik7-5 6-4
2025-01-06AucklandR32hardJakub Mensik6-2 4-6 7-5
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Mensik J.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mensik J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mensik J.Carreno Busta P.
42
Serve
21
51
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Mensik J.Carreno Busta P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
79%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
53%
Service points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
65%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
11.3
2.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Mensik J.Carreno Busta P.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
78
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Clear edge
77
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
92
80
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mensik J.
8.1
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Carreno Busta P.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+149 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Hard Elo 1744
7.2Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1801
10.0
H2H
0.0
7.5
Surface form
4.7
9.05-match win streak
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
2.3
Minutes 14d
8.8
4.0
3-set count
4.0
9.0
Prev. match
7.0
Country comfort
5.6
Context
6.0
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Mensik J.Carreno Busta P.
Freshness·Even
86
90

Mensik J.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 10 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
31°CPartly cloudy
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 28%
Final
Alcaraz C.[1]
Djokovic N.[4]
2-66-26-37-5
Semi-finals
Djokovic N.[4]
Sinner J.[2]
3-66-34-66-46-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Zverev A.[3]
6-47-656-736-747-5
Quarter-finals
Djokovic N.[4]
Musetti L.[5]
4-63-63-1
Sinner J.[2]
Shelton B.[8]
6-36-46-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
De Minaur A.[6]
7-56-26-1
Zverev A.[3]
Tien L.[25]
6-36-756-17-63
R16
Djokovic N.[4]
Mensik J.[16]
W/O
Zverev A.[3]
Cerundolo F.[18]
6-26-46-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Paul T.[19]
7-666-47-5
Musetti L.[5]
Fritz T.[9]
6-27-56-4
Tien L.[25]
Medvedev D.[11]
6-46-06-3
Sinner J.[2]
Darderi L.[22]
6-16-37-62
De Minaur A.[6]
Bublik A.[10]
6-46-16-1
Shelton B.[8]
Ruud C.[12]
3-66-46-36-4
R32
Paul T.[19]
Davidovich Fokina A.[14]
6-16-10-0
Ruud C.[12]
Cilic M.
6-46-43-67-5
Cerundolo F.[18]
Rublev A.[13]
6-37-646-3
Medvedev D.[11]
Marozsan F.
6-754-67-56-06-3
Zverev A.[3]
Norrie C.[26]
7-54-66-36-1
Darderi L.[22]
Khachanov K.[15]
7-653-66-36-4
Fritz T.[9]
Wawrinka S.
7-652-66-46-4
Tien L.[25]
Borges N.
7-696-46-2
Mensik J.[16]
Quinn E.
6-27-657-65
Djokovic N.[4]
Van De Zandschulp B.
6-36-47-64
Sinner J.[2]
Spizzirri E.
4-66-36-46-4
De Minaur A.[6]
Tiafoe F.[29]
6-36-47-5
Bublik A.[10]
Etcheverry T.
7-647-656-4
Alcaraz C.[1]
Moutet C.[32]
6-26-46-1
Shelton B.[8]
Vacherot V.[30]
6-46-47-65
Musetti L.[5]
Machac T.
5-76-46-25-76-2
R64
Moutet C.[32]
Zheng M.
3-66-16-32-0
Tiafoe F.[29]
Comesana F.
6-46-34-66-2
Spizzirri E.
Wu Y.
6-26-46-744-66-3
Quinn E.
Hurkacz H.
6-47-656-1
Paul T.[19]
Tirante T.
6-36-46-2
Vacherot V.[30]
Hijikata R.
6-16-34-66-2
Alcaraz C.[1]
Hanfmann Y.
7-646-36-2
Shelton B.[8]
Sweeny D.
6-36-26-2
Cilic M.
Shapovalov D.[21]
6-46-36-2
Medvedev D.[11]
Halys Q.
6-796-36-46-2
Bublik A.[10]
Fucsovics M.
7-56-47-5
Davidovich Fokina A.[14]
Opelka R.
6-37-635-74-66-4
Etcheverry T.
Fery A.
7-646-16-3
Khachanov K.[15]
Basavareddy N.
6-16-46-3
Mensik J.[16]
Jodar R.
6-26-46-4
Ruud C.[12]
Munar J.
6-37-56-4
Djokovic N.[4]
Maestrelli F.
6-36-26-2
Darderi L.[22]
Baez S.
6-31-66-46-3
Tien L.[25]
Shevchenko A.
6-25-76-16-0
Wawrinka S.
Gea A.
4-66-33-67-57-63
Zverev A.[3]
Muller A.
6-34-66-36-4
Borges N.
Thompson J.
6-796-36-26-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Shang J.
7-666-26-3
Sinner J.[2]
Duckworth J.
6-16-46-2
Fritz T.[9]
Kopriva V.
6-16-47-64
De Minaur A.[6]
Medjedovic H.
6-756-26-26-1
Machac T.
Tsitsipas S.[31]
6-43-67-657-65
Marozsan F.
Majchrzak K.
6-36-47-65
Musetti L.[5]
Sonego L.
6-36-36-4
Cerundolo F.[18]
Dzumhur D.
6-36-26-1
Norrie C.[26]
Nava E.
6-17-634-67-65
Rublev A.[13]
Faria J.
6-46-34-67-5
R128
Borges N.
Auger Aliassime F.[7]
3-66-46-40-0
Alcaraz C.[1]
Walton A.
6-37-626-2
Maestrelli F.
Atmane T.
6-43-66-746-16-1
Mensik J.[16]
Carreno Busta P.
7-54-62-67-616-3
Gea A.
Lehecka J.[17]
7-57-617-5
Duckworth J.
Prizmic D.
7-643-61-67-56-3
Etcheverry T.
Kecmanovic M.
6-23-64-66-36-4
Vacherot V.[30]
Damm M.
6-46-46-4
Shelton B.[8]
Humbert U.
6-37-627-65
Basavareddy N.
Oconnell C.
4-67-676-736-26-3
Opelka R.
Budkov Kjaer N.
6-46-36-4
Sinner J.[2]
Gaston H.
6-26-10-0
Musetti L.[5]
Collignon R.
4-67-637-53-2
Shapovalov D.[21]
Yunchaokete B.
6-37-636-1
Davidovich Fokina A.[14]
Misolic F.
6-26-36-3
Hanfmann Y.
Svajda Z.
7-54-66-47-63
Hijikata R.
Mannarino A.
6-36-36-1
Munar J.
Svrcina D.
3-66-26-757-56-3
Moutet C.[32]
Schoolkate T.
6-47-616-3
Fucsovics M.
Ugo Carabelli C.
7-656-16-2
Halys Q.
Tabilo A.
6-26-27-62
Fery A.
Cobolli F.[20]
7-616-46-1
Sweeny D.
Monfils G.
6-737-56-47-5
De Minaur A.[6]
Mcdonald M.
6-26-26-3
Machac T.
Dimitrov G.
6-46-46-3
Darderi L.[22]
Garin C.
7-657-57-63
Djokovic N.[4]
Martinez P.
6-36-26-2
Khachanov K.[15]
Michelsen A.
4-66-46-35-76-3
Quinn E.
Griekspoor T.[23]
6-26-36-2
Tirante T.
Vukic A.
7-56-26-2
Faria J.
Blockx A.
6-33-66-36-4
Bublik A.[10]
Brooksby J.
6-46-46-4
Spizzirri E.
Fonseca J.[28]
6-42-66-16-2
Cilic M.
Altmaier D.
6-06-07-63
Baez S.
Mpetshi Perricard G.
6-46-43-65-76-3
Fritz T.[9]
Royer V.
7-655-76-16-3
Zverev A.[3]
Diallo G.
6-716-16-46-2
Medjedovic H.
Navone M.
6-26-736-46-2
Nava E.
Jacquet K.
6-27-56-754-67-66
Shevchenko A.
Ymer E.
3-67-56-46-1
Kopriva V.
Struff J.
4-66-22-66-36-1
Marozsan F.
Rinderknech A.[24]
6-36-46-726-4
Van De Zandschulp B.
Nakashima B.[27]
6-34-67-617-63
Norrie C.[26]
Bonzi B.
6-06-724-66-36-4
Tsitsipas S.[31]
Mochizuki S.
4-66-36-26-2
Tiafoe F.[29]
Kubler J.
7-646-36-2
Majchrzak K.
Fearnley J.
7-627-53-67-63
Zheng M.
Korda S.
6-46-43-66-706-3
Sonego L.
Taberner C.
6-46-06-3
Muller A.
Popyrin A.
2-66-33-67-657-64
Hurkacz H.
Bergs Z.
6-767-666-36-3
Dzumhur D.
Draxl L.
7-56-06-4
Wawrinka S.
Djere L.
5-76-36-47-64
Wu Y.
Nardi L.
7-54-66-46-2
Rublev A.[13]
Arnaldi M.
6-46-26-3
Ruud C.[12]
Bellucci M.
6-16-26-4
Cerundolo F.[18]
Zhang Z.
6-37-606-3
Comesana F.
Kypson P.
6-26-33-66-3
Thompson J.
Cerundolo J.
6-737-56-16-1
Shang J.
Bautista Agut R.
6-46-726-46-0
Paul T.[19]
Kovacevic A.
6-46-36-3
Jodar R.
Sakamoto R.
7-666-15-74-66-3
Medvedev D.[11]
De Jong J.
7-56-27-62
Tien L.[25]
Giron M.
7-624-63-67-636-2