Jakub Mensik vs Pablo Carreno BustaAuckland Round of 32

Auckland · ATP · Round of 32
#19ATP
1931ELO
1893Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$6.9MCAREER
20 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWWWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 6 January 2025
hard
#65ATP
1801ELO
1744Hard ELO
$641kYTD
$18MCAREER
35 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
Mensik J.
6-2 4-6 7-5
Carreno Busta P.
Mensik J.
6472
Carreno Busta P.
2651

Jakub Mensik defeated Pablo Carreno Busta 6-2 4-6 7-5 in the Auckland round of 32 on hard. The result followed the form book — Jakub Mensik came in ranked #19, leading the head-to-head 2–0. Jakub Mensik extended the head-to-head to 3–0.

Key context

  • Match story: Jakub Mensik closed it out in three sets, 6–2 4–6 7–5.

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenR128hardJakub Mensik7-5 4-6 2-6 7-6(1) 6-3
2025-11-20Davis Cup Finals QF: ESP vs CZERRhardJakub Mensik7-5 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Mensik J.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Carreno Busta P.

Carreno Busta P.serving85% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Mensik J.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Mensik J.Carreno Busta P.
42
Serve
21
51
Return
44

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
78%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
52%
Service points won·Even
66%
63%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
66%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
12.7
3.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (75 vs 91). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
88
78
Break points saved·Even
98
97
Break points won·Clear edge
77
61
Deciding sets·Clear edge
92
80
Tiebreaks·Even
99
95

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.1+149 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.9Hard Elo 1744
7.2Overall Elo 1931
ELO gap
2.8Overall Elo 1801
5.0
H2H
5.0
4.3
Surface form
4.4
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.5
Minutes 14d
8.1
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
9.0
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
88
92

Mensik J.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Carreno Busta P.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
21°CClear
Wind 23 km/hHumidity 48%